What a win! We cashed a 7-1 ticket on Wander Franco to wrap up the week on Saturday, securing us a profit for the week. We went a combined 3-6-1 — if you wager a quarter-unit on each pick as I do, that’d be good for just over a three-unit profit. That also isn’t counting the wins on base props we’ve secured in this column. Let’s dive into the top MLB home run bets and picks from both myself and OddsShopper’s model today — we’re backing a pair of players at Camden Yards. Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from home run picks to tennis props!
Few sweats are more fun than home run bets. Waiting for your selected player to get his next at-bat — and then hoping they get the right pitch to send yard — can make any afternoon much more enjoyable. Especially when you hit. Readers looking for all the best MLB bets, picks and predictions throughout the season should check out OddsShopper’s articles and market-based models, including our Parlay Builder!
Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks: Value at Camden Yards Today
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds | 7:05 p.m. ET
Isaiah’s Pick: Adley Rutschman at FanDuel
There’s always some risk with taking a home run pick at FanDuel before the official lineups get announced, but because the Baltimore Orioles gave catcher Adley Rutschman a day off on Sunday, I expect him to be in the lineup tonight. More importantly, the 6-1 (14.3%) at FanDuel won’t be around much later in the day — Rutschman slots in at 17-4 (19.1%) at BetMGM and Pinnacle.
Two factors point to value here. First, Rutschman will take on a reeling LHP Brandon Williamson (1-0). Williamson has allowed eight home runs and 8.2 expected home runs in only 36.2 innings pitched. He ranks in the bottom eighth percentile for hard hit percentage allowed. His 6.71 xERA ranks in the bottom third percentile. Rutschman, a switch hitter, has three home runs and a .862 OPS against LHPs this season.
Next, the Orioles will play this game at home. Although not quite as hitter-friendly as Cincinnati’s Great America Ballpark, Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks ninth in overall park factors for home runs. Rutschman has hit 10 home runs this year, eight of which came at home. His 10.1 expected home runs rank fourth on the Orioles as well. Let’s trust him to get the job done at a much-too-long number. You know the drill: bet on Rutschman to hit a home run and go over 1.5 bases at even or better.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Adley Rutschman +700 at FanDuel
Cincinnati Reds vs. Baltimore Orioles | 7:05 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Model Pick: Elly De La Cruz at FanDuel
Let’s flip the slide for this matchup as we turn to OddsShopper’s pick: the model wants exposure to rookie sensation Elly De La Cruz. Note that 10 other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
De La Cruz has taken the MLB by storm. In just 17 games, the shortstop has racked up 18 hits, 23 hits, 10 extra-base hits and three home runs. His .989 OPS trails only part-time player Joey Votto. De La Cruz has played a major role in getting Cincinnati atop the NL East. He’ll line up against Baltimore’s underwhelming LHP Cole Irvin (1-3), whose 7.71 ERA and 8.98 xERA are atrocious.
But the model doesn’t care about hype or Irvin’s struggles — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +425 (19.1%). Our model thinks a fair price is +510 (16.4%), so we’re beating the market and getting a solid amount of edge by playing this at +560 (15.2%) via FanDuel Sportsbook.
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Elly De La Cruz +560 at FanDuel
