Monday saw us cash a +560 ticket on Jeimer Candelario, and we secured a whole bunch of bonus bets on Dinger Tuesday. With a full slate of MLB action scheduled today, I’m looking to chalk another home run bet up in the winner’s column. We’ve got several games to attack for today’s home run picks, but we’re primarily targeting players on the late slate, like Freddie Freeman. Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from home run picks to tennis props!
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Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks: Value in Today’s Late Games
Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta Braves | 7:10 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Target: Josh Bell at FanDuel
Let’s open with OddsShopper’s pick, which comes in on an earlier game: the model wants exposure to Cleveland’s Josh Bell, who takes on the Atlanta Braves and RHP Michael Soroka. Soroka is making just his fourth start after returning from injury. Note that 14 other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
This pick makes plenty of sense given Soroka’s recent struggles and Bell’s success against RHPs. Soroka has allowed at least one home run in all three of his starts this year, and he gave up two to both the Arizona Diamondbacks and Miami Marlins. Four of those home runs went to LHBs, and Bell, a switch-hitter, is likely to hit from that side of the plate against Soroka. Bell has recorded five home runs and 15 extra-base hits against RHPs this year. He hit 10 home runs against them last year.
That said, the model doesn’t care about those factors — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +475 (17.4%). Our model thinks a fair price is +581 (14.7%), so we’re beating the market and getting a ton of edge by playing this MLB home run pick at +630 (13.7%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number is unlikely to remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail the model’s top home run pick today, get your action down soon!
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Josh Bell +630 at FanDuel
Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox | 8:10 p.m. ET
Isaiah’s Target: Daulton Varsho at FanDuel
We could target a hot hitter like Ozzie Albies, who just hit a pair of home runs last night, but that isn’t profitable over the long term. Instead, let’s back one somewhat cold batter to turn things around: Daulton Varsho. He has a great matchup against RHP Lance Lynn, who has surrendered a whopping 22 home runs and 20 expected home runs. He leads the MLB in the former metric and ranks fourth in the latter.
This matchup is a perfect storm for Varsho to send one over the fence because both he and Lynn have extreme splits. Of Lynn’s 22 home runs allowed, 16 have one to left-handed batters like Varsho. LHBs have recorded 27 extra-base hits against Lynn and own a 1.054 OPS. Varsho has recorded 12 home runs and 23 extra-base hits against RHPs for a .689 OPS. He has just two extra-base hits and no home runs against LHPs.
Let’s target Varsho to hit a home run and record over 1.5 bases. Varsho most recently cashed the over on his total bases prop last Wednesday, and he last hit a home run in mid-June. But despite his recent struggles, Varsho ranks third on the Blue Jays in home runs (12) and fourth in expected home runs (11.9). With Chicago’s Guaranteed Rate Field ranked seventh among MLB stadiums in park factors for home runs to LHBs, Varsho is hard to turn down at a price of +400 (20%) via FanDuel Sportsbook.
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Daulton Varsho +400 at FanDuel
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | 10:10 p.m. ET
Isaiah’s Target: Freddie Freeman at DraftKings
I can’t leave tonight’s nightcap off the card. The Pittsburgh Pirates will stay out west for another game, and they’ll trust RHP Osvaldo Bido on the mound. Bido has only surrendered one home run across four major-league starts and 19 innings pitched, good for 0.47 HR/9. However, he has given up seven home runs across 74.1 innings pitched in the minors, good for 0.85 HR/9. LHBs own one home run and two extra-base hits against Bido in the majors, good for a .763 OPS, but three home runs and 12 extra-base hits in the minors, good for a .804 OPS.
Freddie Freeman, a LHB, stands out as a sharp target against Bido. He ranks fourth on the Dodgers in both home runs (14) and expected home runs (13.4) but leads the team in expected weighted on-base average (.408). Although he has fared better against same-handed pitchers this season, that datapoint is an outlier — he racked up a better OPS and more home runs against RHPs in both of the last two seasons. But despite his relative underperformance when facing RHPs this season, Freeman has still recorded five home runs and 27 extra-base hits against them.
As with Varsho, I advise backing Freeman to hit a home run and go over 1.5 bases. The odds for him to record at least two bases sit down at -130 (56.5%) at FanDuel Sportsbook but come in at a nice +105 (48.8%) at DraftKings Sportsbook. We can also pick Freeman to hit a home run today at odds of +450 (18.2%) at DraftKings, which is better than the +434 (18.7%) available at Pinnacle, a sharp book. If you haven’t signed up for DraftKings, you can get $150 in bonus bets after placing a $5 wager!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Freddie Freeman +450 at DraftKings
