I may not have hit on my home run pick yesterday, but we still cashed a -120 ticket on Rafael Devers to record multiple total bases. That’s a solid showing, but I want my target to actually go yard tonight. Let’s dive into today’s best home run picks and bets. New to OddsShopper? Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from MLB home run picks to PGA matchup props!
Few sweats are more fun than home run bets. If you want to start making money on your home run picks, OddsShopper has you covered. We post daily home run articles and have a strategy guide. What’s more, our MLB bet shopping pages integrate data from our industry-leading betting model to identify home run picks with positive expected value (+EV) each day. You can also check out our guide to beating the Dinger Tuesday promotion at FanDuel. If you’re hungry for more than just the picks we post for free, sign up for OddsShopper Premium today — new users can get their first month for 70% off.
Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks: Veterans Stand Out Today
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies | 10:10 p.m. ET
Isaiah’s Target: Freddie Freeman at DraftKings
It’s another day of sun in Los Angeles today, and it should be a good one for Freddie Freeman and the Dodgers. They’ll take on the lowly Colorado Rockies, who intend to start LHP Austin Gomber. Gomber owns a bad 5.40 ERA and a worse 5.52 xERA. He also leads the Rockies with 22 actual and 22 expected home runs allowed, 23 of which would’ve gone over the fence at Dodger Stadium. Gombers has majorly struggled against same-handed batters — he has coughed up 14 extra-base hits and seven home runs with a .684 SLG in 95 at-bats.
Few batters are better positioned to take advantage of Gomber than Freddie Freeman. Freeman has feasted against LHPs this year — he owns 23 extra-base hits and 12 home runs with a .716 SLG in 141 at-bats. More importantly, Freeman has just been an efficient hitter all year. He leads the Dodgers in expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .418, which also happens to rank in the 98th percentile. He has 23 actual and 22 expected home runs to this name, 26 of which would’ve cleared the fence at Dodger Stadium.
If you’re still not sold on Freeman today, look at the weather in L.A. The clear weather will help, but so will an 8 mph wind blowing out through right field, which is perfect for LHBs like him. You’ll find this home run pick priced at +347 (22.4%) via Pinnacle, a sharp book, but we can buy the +360 (21.7%) via DraftKings Sportsbook instead. Pair that with a wager on Freeman to record over 1.5 total bases at -115 (53.5%) via BetMGM before that line disappears. Pinnacle lists it at -128 (56.1%).
New to DraftKings? Take advantage of their signup offer: new users can get $150 in bonus bets after placing a $5 wager!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Freddie Freeman +360 at DraftKings
Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates | 7:05 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Target: Joey Votto at FanDuel
Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s pick, which comes on a veteran slugger. The model has faith in Joey Votto tonight, so much so that it thinks he is undervalued at even +540 (15.6%). Over 137 at-bats, Votto owns a .329 xwOBA but has still hit 13 actual and 12 expected home runs. Note that eight other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Votto draws a matchup against RHP Johan Oviedo, who has struggled against LHBs like him. His 4.18 ERA and 4.37 xERA aren’t awful, but his 13 actual and 16 expected home runs allowed don’t inspire much confidence. Worse, 11 of those home runs have gone to LHBs in 268 at-bats. LHBs own a .422 SLG against Oviedo this year. Meanwhile, Votto has 10 home runs against RHPs this year with a .546 SLG. The spot is absolutely perfect for Votto to go yard.
That said, the model doesn’t care about splits or stats — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +400 (20%). Our model thinks a fair price is +474 (17.4%), so we’re beating the market and getting some value by playing this MLB home run pick at +540 (15.6%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail one of the model’s top home run picks today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Joey Votto +540 at FanDuel
