Let’s go — we’ve now hit one of our home run picks in three straight articles: a +750 ticket for Alec Bohm on Monday, +400 ticket for Randy Arozarena on Wednesday and a +330 ticket for Luis Robert Jr. on Thursday. Can we keep the money flowing? Let’s dive into today’s best MLB home run picks and bets for Braves-Giants and Reds-Diamondbacks. We’re trusting Ronald Acuna Jr. to go yard at a windy Oracle Park.
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Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks Today for Friday, August 25
Braves-Giants Home Run Pick
When: 10:15 p.m. ET
Where: Oracle Park, San Francisco
Isaiah’s Target: Ronald Acuna Jr. at DraftKings
The Atlanta Braves will visit the San Francisco Giants this evening, and while Oracle Park is usually a bad spot for power hitters, it’s a great one tonight. The forecast calls for 20 mph winds blowing out through center field, which should give batters on both teams a boost. Few batters make for a better target than Ronald Acuna Jr. in this game.
Acuna owns a jaw-dropping .628 xSLG to go with a .348 xBA, which slot in the 99th and 100th percentile, respectively. He has 28 actual and 27.8 expected home runs to his name, 24 of which would’ve cleared the fences at Oracle Park. He has feasted against RHPs like the one he’ll face tonight for a .577 SLG and 23 home runs as well.
Acuna will take on RHP Logan Webb, whose actual stats are slightly misleading when compared to his expected stats. Webb owns a .385 SLG allowed but a .399 xSLG allowed. He also owns a 3.35 ERA but only a 3.66 xERA. He has coughed up 18 actual and 19.1 expected home runs this year as well, although only 14 of those hits would’ve counted for home runs at his home stadium.
Let’s lock in Acuna at surprisingly long odds of +600 (14.3%) via DraftKings Sportsbook to go yard and -120 (54.5%) to record multiple bases. You’ll find those odds set to +500 (16.7%) and -130 (56.5%), respectively, at FanDuel.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Ronald Acuna Jr. +600 at DraftKings
Reds-Diamondbacks Home Run Pick
When: 9:40 p.m. ET
Where: Chase Field, Phoenix
OddsShopper’s Target: Christian Encarnacion-Sttrand at FanDuel
It’s now time for OddsShopper’s pick, which also comes on another one of today’s late games: Reds-Diamondbacks. The model wants action on Christian Encarnacion-Strand at odds of +600 (14.3%), a price you’ll find exclusively via FanDuel. Encarnacion-Strand has hit four actual and four expected home runs since getting called up, all of which would’ve cleared the fences at Chase Field. Note that six other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Encarnacion-Strand takes on a struggling RHP Brandon Pfaadt tonight. Pfaadt has coughed up 14 actual and 13.3 expected home runs this year, 15 of which would’ve counted as home runs in his home park. Pfaadt has also struggled against both RHBs like Encarnacion-Strand and LHBs, allowing seven home runs to both in roughly equal at-bats. All four of Encarnacion-Strand’s home runs have come against RHPs, and he owns a .391 SLG when facing them.
That said, the model doesn’t care about stats or splits — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +425 (19.1%). Our model thinks a fair price is +571 (14.9%), so we’re beating the market and getting some value by playing this MLB home run pick at +600 (14.3%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail one of the model’s top home run picks today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Christian Encarnacion-Strand +600 at FanDuel
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