Market-making sportsbooks release lines early so that sharp bettors can give them information. When sharp action comes in on the opening lines, it allows the books to move them to the right price. In the meantime, there are inefficiencies in the MLB overnight odds that can be exploited. Those get smaller as the season goes on, but we’ve got a few small edges to take in advantage of, so let’s use OddsShopper’s market-based model to find Athletics-Cardinals, Marlins-Astros and Angels-Rangers MLB overnight bets for Monday night.
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MLB Overnight Bets: Athletics-Cardinals, Marlins-Astros, Angels-Rangers
Athletics-Cardinals MLB Overnight Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
A’s: +180 | Cardinals: -215
A’s: +1.5: -115 | Cardinals: -1.5: -104
Over 9: -105 | Under 9: -115
The Oakland Athletics are making their way back west with a final stop on their road trip in St. Louis to take on the Cardinals. It’s no surprise that the A’s last stop was a disaster. They got swept in a weekend series by the Washington Nationals. They’ll face another last place team in the Cardinals, but that doesn’t mean much when its the Athletics. They’ve got a 33-85 record which is one of the worst in baseball history.
Nevertheless, Oakland will have their best starting pitcher on the mound for Monday’s game. J.P. Sears was acquired last year at the trade deadline from the New York Yankees, and has provided steady work in the Athletics’ rotation. Sears was touched up a bit by the Texas Rangers in his last start, but prior to that outing he threw five innings of two run ball against the Los Angeles Dodgers and gave up a single run in five innings pitched in Coors Field. It’s nothing to write home about, but Sears has enough ability to hold the Cardinals down.
The same can be said on the Cardinals side of this game. They will have Miles Mikolas take the bump to start the game. He has been one of the organization’s most consistent starters for several season. Mikolas isn’t flashy and he has below average strikeout stuff. However, he’s crafty enough to put in a good start, especially against a weak lineup like Oakland’s.
The Athletics-Cardinals Over/Under is at 9 runs (-115) at FanDuel, which is leaving some edge on the table. The bet has a win rate of 54% and the true odds are -120. That gives this Athletics-Cardinals bet a small 2% positive expected value. It’s worth staking about .75% of your bank roll if you’re applying the full Kelly Criterion for sustainable growth.
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Best MLB Athletics-Cardinals Overnight Bet: Under 9 Runs (-115) at FanDuel
Marlins-Astros MLB Overnight Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Marlins: +130 | Astros: -154
Marlins: +1.5: +112 | Astros: -1.5: -134
Over 7.5: +120| Under 7.5: -102
The Houston Astros just completed a weekend series against the Los Angeles Angels and now have to make the quick turnaround and travel to Miami for a series against the Marlins. Houston won two out of three from the Angels, putting up eleven runs in the series’ first two games. They could only manage to score once on Sunday though, so they’ll look to re-ignite their offense in Miami.
Framber Valdez is on the hill for Houston. This is his second start since throwing a no-hitter against the Cleveland Guardians on August 1st. Unfortunately, Valdez was unable to follow-up that incredible feat with another strong start. He gave up five earned runs across seven innings to the Baltimore Orioles in his last outing. He remains the ace of the Astros staff and is a big reason why they’re moneyline favorites on the road Monday.
The Miami Marlins will try to have something to say about that. At 62-57 the Fish are deep in the Wild Card race and looking for every victory they can find. They’ll have to do so behind Braxton Garrett on Monday, who has been a steady part of their rotation for the entirity of 2023. He’ll have the tall task of keeping down the Astros offense which is one of the strongest in the league, especially since the return of Yordan Alvarez from the Injured List.
There aren’t any huge edges to take action on in the MLB overnight betting markets for this game, but there’s a small +EV spot on the Marlins +130 at FanDuel for those looking for a sweat. This Marlins-Astros bet has just under a 1% positive expected value and hits about 44% of the time. It’s worth staking about .24% of your bank roll using the full Kelly Criterion for proper management.
Best MLB Marlins-Astros Overnight Bet: Marlins Moneyline (+130) at FanDuel
Angels-Rangers MLB Overnight Odds
Odds via BetRivers Sportsbook
Angels: +148 | Rangers: -175
Angels +1.5: -148 | Rangers -1.5: +118
Over 9: -106 | Under 9: -114
Things have not gone the way the Los Angeles Angels brass had hoped after they decided to become “buyers” at the trade deadline. With one last year of Shohei Ohtani under contract they chose to make one last push for a playoff berth and run to the World Series before potentially losing the slugger (and Ace) in the offseason. Unfortunately the team has been no better off since adding the likes of Mike Moustakas, C.J. Cron, Randall Grichuk and Lucas Giolito to their roster.
The Angels may be stuck in fourth place in the AL West, but the Texas Rangers are holding strong as the division’s leader. They’ll host the Angels for a series starting on Monday night. The Rangers also made waves at the deadline, adding Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery to their pitching staff. They could also be boosted by the return of Jacob deGrom who is pushing to pitch again this year after undergoing Tommy John surgery in June.
Scherzer will square off against Patrick Sandoval in this game. The latter doesn’t have Scherzer’s name recognition, but he’s a solid starter that has consistently gotten the job done for the Angels over the last two seasons. Even with he and Scherzer on the mound for their respective teams, there is a very slight misprice on the first inning runs scored for this game. You can bet “Yes” Runs First Inning (YRFI) at BetRivers for -107. This Angels-Rangers bet has a 52% shot to win with true odds of -110. That’s a small 1% positive expectation making it worth staking just under .5% of your bankroll if you’re using full Kelly Criterion wagering.
Best MLB Angels-Rangers Overnight Bet: Over 0.5 First Inning Runs (-107) at BetRivers
