Overnight MLB bets often have the most value. Market-making books release the lines so sharp bettors can give them information. If you can track these bets well, you can find an edge. That is exactly what OddsShopper’s model does. Things can change, but let’s take a look at some early lines for Braves-Reds, Athletics-Blue Jays and Astros-Dodgers for Friday night’s games to see where the overnight MLB betting value lies at the moment.
Readers looking for all the best MLB bets, picks and predictions throughout the season should check out OddsShopper’s articles and market-based models, including our Parlay Builder!
MLB Overnight Bets: Braves-Reds, Athletics-Blue Jays
Braves-Reds Overnight Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Braves: -162: | Reds: +136
Over 11: -106 | Under 11: -114
The Great American Ballpark is one of the best hitter’s parks in the league. The upstart Cincinnati Reds can definitely attest. Veteran Joey Votto has returned to join a young and promising roster featuring superstar prospect Elly De La Cruz. They are getting hot, especially with the bats. It is a huge change for a franchise that has struggled for several years.
The Atlanta Braves offense can hit too. That is nothing new to MLB bettors who have seen this team rake its way into the postseason for years. It has also done an outstanding job developing its pitching staff, particularly ace Spencer Strider. The Braves will have A.J. Smith-Shawver on the mound Friday in Cincinnati. Smith-Shawver was recently at Double-A but has been solid since being called up by the Braves a couple weeks ago.
MLB bettors can look for Smith-Shawver to continue pitching well and perhaps a similar outing from Luke Weaver. The total has opened at over/under 11. Although these teams can hit and the starting pitching is nothing to write home about, that number is a bit too high. The best price on the market is at FanDuel, where you can buy under 11 runs at -114. According to the OddsShopper model, the true odds should be about -121, giving this bet a 3% positive expected value.
Best MLB Braves-Reds Overnight Bet: Under 11 Runs -114 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Want the sharpest bets on the market at the best price? Follow along with OddsShopper’s market-based model by signing up here. New customers can get 70% off their first month!
Athletics-Blue Jays Overnight Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Braves: +245: | Reds: -295
Over 9.5: +103 | Under 9.5: -124
The Oakland Athletics are bad. Luckily for A’s fans, they will not have to tolerate them much longer as they prepare to move to Las Vegas. They also will not have to worry about the empty ballpark in Oakland as the A’s hit the road to play the Toronto Blue Jays on Friday night. The Blue Jays are massive -295 favorites with Chris Bassitt taking the hill against his former club.
James Kaprielian is on the mound for Oakland, and he may be getting just a bit undervalued on MLB overnight betting markets. The total in this game is over/under 9.5 runs, which is leaving a bit of value on the under. The model tracks the sharpest linemakers to get the true odds, or fair price of a bet. This one should be at -131, creating another 3% edge on an overnight run total. It is likely the market will adjust a bit if sharp bettors grab this early line. It is playable up to -130, although you will want to really limit your bet size using Kelly bet sizing if you cannot get the full 3% ROI.
Best MLB Athlet0cs-Blue Jays Overnight Bet: Under 9.5 Runs -121 at FanDuel
