Overnight betting can be some of the most profitable. Early MLB betting lines come out from market-making books as they take on bets from the sharps who help them move toward efficiency. In the meantime, there’s plenty of spots to find positive expected value if you’re looking at the right time. OddsShopper’s market-based modelis a great way to do just that. It uses a top-down method that identifies the sharp books and then finds where others are off. Let’s dive into these Mariners-Twins, Angels-Tigers and Blue Jays-Dodgers MLB overnight bets to see where things stand.
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MLB Overnight Bets: Mariners-Twins, Angels-Tigers, Blue Jays-Dodgers
Mariners-Twins MLB Overnight Odds
Odds via Caesar’s Sportsbook
Mariners: +110 | Twins -130
Mariners: +1.5: -190 | Twins: -1.5: +158
Over 7.5: -120 | Under 7.5: +100
Bryce Miller has been one of the top rookie arms in the league in 2023, becoming a mainstay in the Seattle Mariner’s rotation. He takes on Joe Ryan and the Minnesota Twins on Wednesday. The matchup has two strong starters pitching in one of the worst parks for scoring in all of baseball, which has this total at just 7.5 runs. There should be pretty high MLB bets for the K-props as well given the prowess of both Miller and Ryan and the propensity to find strikeouts in these lineups.
Despite the strong pitching and suspect offense, the 7.5 runs is just a bit too low. You can buy the Over 7.5 runs at Caesars for -120. Assuming the market is trending upwards, the odds should move toward -125 or -130. The true odds of the bet are -125, and it has a 56% win probability. Those numbers give this Mariners-Twins MLB bet a 2% positive expected value. It’s worth staking .8% of your bankroll using the Kelly Criterion for sustainable growth.
Best MLB Mariners-Twins Overnight Bet: Over 7.5 Runs (-120) at Caesars
Angels-Tigers MLB Overnight Odds
Odds via BetRivers Sportsbook
Angels: +100 | Tigers: -117
Angels -1.5: +160 | Tigers +1.5: -210
Over 8: -118 | Under 8: -103
2023 is likely to be the Los Angeles Angels last run with Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout. The latter is likely to stick around, but Ohtani looks to be on the move as early as this year’s trade deadline. The loss of Ohtani is a huge blow to an organization that was set-up for success with one of the game’s most exciting players ever. The Angels did notch a win over the Detroit Tigers on Tuesday and they’ll look to make it two in a row on Wednesday afternoon. They’ll have Patrick Sandoval on the hill against Michael Lorenzen, who pitched for the Angels in 2022.
The overnight MLB bets gave a slight nod to the Tigers in the early going, and you can still grab the Angels at +100 to win as of the time of this writing. The true odds for the Angels should be -104 as they are closer to a straight pick-em against Lorenzen and Detroit. The bet should win about 51% of the time, giving it a 2% positive expected value and making it worth a bet of .7% of your bank roll using Kelly Criterion staking.
Best MLB Angels-Tigers Overnight Bet: Angels Moneyline (+100) at BetRivers
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Blue Jays-Dodgers MLB Overnight Odds
Odds via BetRivers Sportsbook
Blue Jays: +132 | Dodgers: -155
Blue Jays +1.5: -159 | Dodgers -1.5: +128
Over 10: -117 | Under 10: -104
The Blue Jays have benefited from seeing some of the weaker parts of the Los Angeles Dodgers’ rotation in their three game series. In other words, they didn’t have to hit against Clayton Kershaw. Toronto faced off against Michael Grove in the first game of the series, winning 6-3. They are in a battle with Julio Urias at the moment and will get Tony Gonsolin on Wednesday. Yusei Kikuchi will be on the hill to face Gonsolin. Kikuchi is coming off one of his better starts of the season. He’s been consistent all year, but put in over 5 innings of no run ball with eight strikeouts in his last outing.
MLB bettors can grab the Blue Jays moneyline at BetRivers for +132, which has just over a 1% edge. The true odds of this +EV bet are +129 given the current state of the MLB overnight betting market. It’s a small edge, so it’s worth staking about .4% of your roll for this wager that connects about 44% of the time.
Best MLB Blue Jays-Dodgers Overnight Bet: Blue Jays Moneyline (+132) at BetRivers
