MLB overnight bets are a great way to find value before the markets become efficient. Market-making sportsbooks release lines early to let sharp action come in and tell them how to adjust the lines to the right number. This happens on MLB game bets, and now books are sometimes releasing MLB overnight odds on player props as early as 24-hours before the games. Let’s use OddsShopper’s market-based model to look at Marlins-Reds, Nationals-Phillies and Blue Jays-Guardians MLB overnight bets for Monday night.
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MLB Overnight Bets: Marlins-Reds, Nationals-Phillies, Blue Jays-Guardians
Marlins-Reds MLB Overnight Odds
Odds via BetRivers Sportsbook
Marlins: -125 | Reds: +107
Marlins: -1.5: +150 | Reds: +1.5: -150
Over 10.5: -109 | Under 10.5: -112
The Cincinnati Reds are starting to decline after a very strong month of July. At 59-55, the Reds are still in the hunt to win the NL Central, but they are now in third place behind the surging Chicago Cubs and the first place Milwaukee Brewers. The Reds still have a shot to make the playoffs, but if not they can still hold their head’s high after surprising the league with a young offense poised to breakthrough in the future.
Cincinnati will host the Miami Marlins on Monday for the first game of a three-game series. The fish are 58-55, which is almost identical to the Reds. The two clubs are both on the rise after many years of struggling, and both are making their last gasp for a playoff push.
The Great American Ballpark is known for it’s offense, but the market is leaving some value on the table right now for NRFI bet. You can grab a Marlins-Reds bet on Under 0.5 Runs in the first inning for +115 at BetRivers. This MLB bet has true odds of +112 given the 47% win rate, which makes it a 2% positive expected value. It’s worth staking .45% of your bank roll if you’re using the Kelly Criterion.
Best MLB Marlins-Reds Overnight Bet: Under 0.5 Runs First Inning (+115) at BetRivers
Nationals-Phillies MLB Overnight Odds
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
Nationals: +185 | Phillies: -225
Nationals: +1.5: -110 | Phillies: -1.5: -110
Over 9.5: -125 | Under 9.5: +105
The Philadelphia Phillis have a 61-51 record and would be leading several other divisions in baseball. However, their circumstances in the NL East are a bit unique given the incredible play of the Atlanta Braves, who at 70 wins are putting others in the dust. The Phillies just won two out of three from the Kansas City Royals. Now after feasting on Royals pitching they’ll get the last place Washington Nationals.
Trevor Williams will take the hill for the Nats’ across from Ranger Suarez for Philly. Neither starter has exciting stuff, but they can get the job done. It appears that in the early part of this market people are underrating this starting pitching matchup since there’s a bit of value on this game to go under 9.5 runs. This Nationals-Phillies bet is at +105 at Caesars which gives it a +2% positive expectation. The true odds of the bet should be +101 with its win probability just below 50%. It’s worth staking about .65% of your roll for sustainable money management.
Best MLB Nationals-Phillies Overnight Bet: Under 9.5 Runs (+105) at Caesars
Blue Jays-Guardians MLB Overnight Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Angels: -124 | Guardians: +106
Angels -1.5: +132 | Guardians +1.5: -160
Over 8.5: -115 | Under 8.5: -105
The Cleveland Guardians are sinking. They just lose two out of three to the Chicago White Sox, and now have to hunker down from a visit from the hot hitting Toronto Blue Jays squad that just put up thirteen runs in Boston. Cleveland will have to keep that in check if they want to start inching back to .500 and have any hopes of winning the AL Central or sneaking their way into a Wild Card spot. On the other hand, Toronto has plenty to play for themselves. At thirteen games above .500 they are right in the thick of the playoff race.
Hyun-jin Ryu will start for Toronto against Gavin Williams of Cleveland. Both starting pitchers are in different parts of their career. The veteran Ryu has spent a decade in the majors, bringing tons of experience and past success, especially during his stint with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Williams is a highly regarded rookie who has pitched well in his first big league campaign. He’ll have to continue his output as the team tries to stay afloat.
The most important element of this game for bettors is the Blue Jays-Guardians odds on the run total. You can currently find it priced at 8.5 (-115) at FanDuel which is leaving some edge on the table. This Blue Jays-Guardians bet has true odds of -124 and win rate of 55% giving it a 4% positive expected value. It’s worth staking just over 1% of your bank roll if you’re using the Kelly Criterion for sustainable growth.
Best MLB Blue Jays-Guardians Overnight Bet: Over 8.5 Runs (-115) at FanDuel
