The best time to make an MLB bet is overnight. Early lines are often inefficient since sharp bettors are just beginning to get action down. Markets will trend toward efficiency, but in the meantime, you have a chance to jump on some extra value. Let’s dive into Mets-Astros and Rangers-White Sox for two MLB overnight prop bets with positive expected value.
Readers looking for all the best MLB bets, picks and predictions throughout the season should check out OddsShopper’s articles and market-based models, including our Parlay Builder!
MLB Overnight Bets: Mets-Astros, Rangers-White Sox
Mets-Astros Overnight Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Mets +135: | Astros: -155
Over 8.5: -110 | Under 8.5: -110
The Houston Astros beat the New York Mets 4-2 on Tuesday night behind a strong outing by Framber Valdez. Houston’s offense may be sputtering as of late due to injuries, but they have stayed afloat thanks to solid starting pitching. That is likely to continue tomorrow with Cristian Javier on the mound. Javier has been one of the team’s top arms for several seasons. He is giving the Astros the early overnight edge on MLB betting markets as he prepares to square off against the Mets’ Tylor Megill.
Javier’s strikeout prop has opened at 4.5. That number is a bit low, even at the current best price of -165 at DraftKings. Buying Javier to go over that number at -165 has an expected value of 8% given the current market conditions. OddsShopper’s market-based model uses the sharpest sportsbooks in every bet type to identify the true odds. At the moment, Javier’s MLB K-props have a fair price of -207. If you’re using Kelly bet sizing, this one is worth staking ~4.5% of your bankroll. The value probably won’t last, but grab this MLB overnight now to lock in the price.
Best MLB Overnight Bet: Cristian Javier Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-165) at DraftKings
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Rangers-White Sox Overnight Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Rangers: -110 | White Sox: -110
Over 9.5: -105 | Under 9.5: -115
The Chicago White Sox sneaked by the Texas Rangers 7-6 on Tuesday night with a late-game rally. They lost the first game of the series 5-2 to the Rangers on Monday. Chicago and Texas will play the rubber match on Wednesday night. Martin Perez will take the hill for the Rangers against Michael Kopech. The MLB overnight odds currently have this one at -110 on both sides.
The biggest value bet in this game comes on another MLB prop. Like Javier, Perez’s strikeout prop is underpriced at DraftKings. You can grab Perez to go over 3.5 strikeouts at -160, which has an expected value of 4%. The true odds should be around -178, and the market could move in that direction. The appropriate Kelly Criterion stake is a bet at 2.2% of your roll.
Bettors looking for more overnight MLB bets should check out OddsShopper’s model. Premium subscribers can access the tool at any time to determine the best MLB bets on the market.
Best MLB Overnight Bet: Martin Perez Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-160) at DraftKings
