MLB overnight bets are a great way to find value before the markets become efficient. Market-making sportsbooks release lines early to let sharp action come in and tell them how to adjust the lines to the right number. This happens on MLB game bets, and now books are sometimes releasing MLB overnight odds on player props as early as 24-hours before the games. Let’s use OddsShopper’s market-based model to look at Orioles-Blue Jays, Guardians-Astros and Angels-Braves MLB overnight bets for Tuesday night.
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MLB Overnight Bets: Orioles-Blue Jays, Guardians-Astros, Angels-Braves
Orioles-Blue Jays MLB Overnight Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Orioles: +104 | Blue Jays: -122
Orioles: +1.5: -192 | Blue Jays: -1.5: +158
Over 8.5: -120 | Under 8.5: -102
The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Toronto 4-2 on Monday night. That win was in the first game of a three game series in Toronto that came right on the back of the Orioles’ series win over the New York Yankees. They’re in first place in the AL East for the first time in years and proving that they’re true contenders.
Kyle Bradish will be the O’s starting pitcher for Tuesday’s game. The 26-year old is enjoying a stellar 2023 season, his first full campaign in the big leagues. Bradish started 23 games in 2022, posting a 4.90 ERA and 2.4 K/BB ratio. Those numbers have improved substantially in 2023. Bradish has a 3.29 ERA to go along with a 1.14 WHIP and 3.5 K/BB ratio.
The Blue Jays will have Hyun-jin Ryu on the hill. Ryu, a lefty, has not pitched since June 1st when he went on the injured list. He has several major league campaigns under his belt, but he has been mediocre since the 2020 season when he joined the Blue Jays after a strong career with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Ryu is likely to be on a pitch count, meaning the Orioles should see a healthy dose of Jays’ relievers.
The Over/Under for this game is 8.5 and the Blue Jays are slight Moneyline favorites. Nevertheless, there should be plenty of chances for the O’s to score. That’s especially true for Austin Hays who is likely to bat leadoff facing the left-handed Ryu. His odds to score a run are +135 at FanDuel which is leaving plenty of value on the table. The Orioles-Blue Jays bet has a 7% positive expected value given it’s true odds of _120 and win probability of 45%. It’s worth staking about 1.5% of your bankroll using the Kelly Criterion for sustainable growth.
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Best MLB Orioles-Blue Jays Overnight Bet: Austin Hays Over 0.5 Runs Score (+135) at FanDuel
Guardians-Astros MLB Overnight Odds
Odds via PointsBet
Guardians: +160 | Astros: -190
Guardians: +1.5: -130 | Astros: -1.5: +110
Over 8: -120 | Under 8: -100
Framber Valdez has been one of the most consistent starters in Major League Baseball over the last five season. He has a career 3.36 ERA and 1.23 WHIP since 2018, while striking out nearly a batter per inning in that span. Unfortunately, Valdez’s strikeout prospects should take a bit against the Cleveland Guardians when they play the Houston Astros on Tuesday. The Guardians strike out one of the lowest rates in the league.
You can grab a Guardians-Astros bet on Valdez’s strikeout prop with a lot of value. This MLB overnight bet for Valdez Under 5.5 strikeouts has a Vig of -150 at PointsBet. However, the bet’s true odds should be -173 given the 63% win probability using OddsShopper’s market-based model. That gives it a 6% positive expected value and makes the bet worth staking just under 3% of your bankroll using the Kelly Criterion.
Best MLB Guardians-Astros Overnight Bet: Framber Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150) at PointsBet
Angels-Braves MLB Overnight Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Angels: +220 | Braves: -270
Angels +1.5: +106 | Braves -1.5: -128
Over 9: -110 | Under 9: -110
The Los Angeles Angels have been wheeling and dealing heading into the trade deadline. First they acquired Lucas Giolito from the Chicago White Sox and yesterday they added Randall Grichuk and C.J. Cron from the Colorado Rockies. The Angels’ new assets paid off, as they notched a win over the Atlanta Braves on Monday night. The Angels and Braves will play Game 2 of their series on Tuesday.
The Braves are heavily favored, by baseball standards, despite Monday’s loss. They are a -270 favorite to take down the halos, who are +220 on the Moneyline. Nevertheless, there’s one Angels-Braves overnight bet for a hitter prop that’s leaving a ton of value on the underdog squad. MLB bettors can grab and MLB prop bet for Mickey Moniak to hit a home run for +500 at FanDuel. The fair price should be +455 for this bet that wins 18% of the time. That gives this MLB bet an 8% positive expected value. It doesn’t win often, so you’ll want to be careful with your staking. It’s worth about 1% of your bankroll using the Kelly Criterion.
Best MLB Angels-Braves Overnight Bet: Mickey Moniak Over 0.5 Home Runs (+500) at FanDuel
