There’s usually value to be found on overnight MLB bets. Market-makers are setting lines earlier and earlier on MLB games, allowing sharp bettors to make their choices and provide information that creates efficiency. If you can track these MLB bets well, you’ll find an edge. That’s where the OddsShopper market-based betting model does its thing. The tool uses the sharpest linemakers in every sport to find the true odds for a bet. Things can change, but let’s see the early lines for Padres-Pirates, Reds-Orioles and Nationals-Mariners for Tuesday’s games to where the overnight MLB odds and betting values are right now.
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MLB Overnight Bets: Padres-Pirates, Reds-Orioles, Nationals-Mariners
Padres-Pirates MLB Overnight Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Padres: -175 | Pirates: +150
Over 8.5: -120 | Under 8.5: +100
The Pittsburgh Pirates got out to one of the hottest starts in Major League Baseball, although their success was probably an aberration. Little was expected out of the Pirates coming into the year and they are now regressing back to that assumption. They’ll have 42-year Rich Hill on the mound on Tuesday when they host the San Diego Padres for Game 1 of a three game series. Hill is no slouch, but mediocre arms like that are why there isn’t much support for this team’s chances.
The Padres will have their ace Yu Darvish in tow when they kickoff the series on Tuesday night. Nevertheless, Darvish hasn’t looked like himself this season, and he has been one reason why the Padres have had an opposite start to the Pirates. Darvish has a 4.84 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in his first fourteen starts. With him leading the charge, the Padres haven’t lived up to their preseason hype. They have a 37-41 record and are second to last in the NL West.
Despite the lack of starting pitching in this game, the Over/Under is only 8.5 runs. Given the current market, there is value on the over at DraftKings where you can buy Over 8.5 runs at -120. The bet has a 4% expected value according to OddsShopper’s top down, market-based betting model. The true odds should be -131, giving it a 57% implied win probability.
Best MLB Padres-Pirates Overnight Bet: Over 8.5 Runs (-120) at DraftKings
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Reds-Orioles MLB Overnight Odds
Odds via Caesar’s Sportsbook
Reds: +118 | Orioles: -140
Over 8.5: -110 | Under 8.5: -110
The Cincinnati Reds are on fire. Their 12-game winning streak came to an end at the hands of the Atlanta Braves on Saturday, but they used the hot stretch to propel themselves into the NL Central race. The Reds are just a half game behind the Milwaukee Brewers as of this writing. Their success comes just as they called up phenom Elly De La Cruz, bringing new look and energy to Cincinnati. They also called SP Andrew Abbott from Triple-A, who has been another pleasant surprise. The young southpaw is 3-0 with a miniscule 1.14 ERA and incredible strikeout rate.
The Baltimore Orioles bring as much youth to the table as the Reds. The upstart Orioles are vying for position in a crowded AL East, competing with the likes of the New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox. They’ve been a young bright spot in MLB’s toughest division. The Orioles will send Tyler Wells to the mound on Tuesday, who is having his best season as a pro. His talent has always been there, and the team will hope to see him reach ace status at some point in his career.
Both teams have solid pitching going Tuesday, but this is another spot with value on the over in the MLB overnight odds. Caesar’s has this one at Over/Under 8.5 runs for -110. That’s leaving about a 2% edge to grab as the prices trend toward efficiency. The bet’s true odds should be -115, making this one worth staking 1% of your bank roll using Kelly Criterion bank roll management.
Best MLB Reds-Orioles Overnight Bet: Over 8.5 Runs (-110) at Caesar’s
Nationals-Mariners MLB Overnight Odds
Odds via BetRivers Sportsbook
Nationals: -188 | Mariners: +225
Over 8: -120 | Under 8: -103
The Washington Nationals jumped out to an early lead on Monday night against the Seattle Mariners. Lane Thomas cracked a solo shot to leadoff the game. The Nats followed that up with another solo bomb in the second inning from Dominic Smith. Unfortunately for Washington, the success didn’t last and Trevor Williams and the bullpen eventually succumbed to the Seattle bats. The Nats’ pitching surrendered eight runs to Seattle and they could have more problems tomorrow with rookie Jake Irvin on the mound. Irvin has had a rough start to his career, posting a 4.71 ERA and just 33 strikeouts in 42 IP.
There’s a different story for Seattle Mariner’s starter Bryan Woo. The 23-year old rookie has had four big league starts. He came out the gate with a shaky outing against the Texas Rangers on June 3rd, surrendering six earned runs in two innings pitched. However, Woo has turned things around, improving in every start. He blanked the New York Yankees last outing with 5.2 shutout innings in Yankee stadium. Woo’s main success comes from strikeouts. The rookie already has 25 K’s in 17 IP.
Seattle backers will need Woo to continue his improvement. If he does, he could be the reason why they cover the run line bet tomorrow night. BetRivers has the Mariners -1.5 at even money (+100), which is just a tad too cheap. You can grab this MLB bet for just under a percentage point of positive expected value. It connects just over 50% of the time, so using Kelly Criterion staking it’s worth putting down 1% of your bank roll. Keep this and the aforementioned MLB overnight bets in mind, as the market is sure to move as Tuesday nears. Sign-up for full access to every bet, in every sport that the OddsShopper model,so you can take advantage of the best odds as soon as they’re out.
Best MLB Nationals-Mariners Overnight Bet: Seattle Mariners -1.5 (+100) at BetRivers
