When betting lines first open, market-making books allow the sharps to bet into them so they can learn the efficient price. That creates inefficiencies in the early part of betting markets while the line adjusts to sharp action. The early betting line inefficiencies in MLB overnight odds get smaller as the season goes on, but there are still a few spots to extract value on for Wednesday’s baseball action. Let’s take a look at OddsShopper’s market-based model to find the edges on Red Sox-Nationals, Brewers-Dodgers and Phillies-Blue Jays MLB overnight bets for Wednesday night.
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MLB Overnight Bets: Red Sox-Nationals, Brewers-Dodgers, Phillies-Blue Jays
Red Sox-Nationals MLB Overnight Odds
Odds via BetRivers Sportsbook
Red Sox: -167 | Nationals: +143
Red Sox: -1.5: -106 | Nationals: +1.5: -118
Over 9: -114 | Under 9: -108
The Boston Red Sox won Game 1 of a three game series against the Washington Nationals on Tuesday night. They opened the game with an Alex Verdugo leadoff home run, putting up five runs in total for the night. That was enough to take care of the Nationals, who mounted a comeback later in the game but couldn’t break through, losing 5-4. Nick Pivetta and the Boston Red Sox shut the Nats down from the third inning onward.
Boston will look to secure the series victory by winning another one on Wednesday night. They’ll be doing so with James Paxton on the hill, who has been a pleasant surprise in 2023 after returning from several years off due to arm injuries. Paxton got out of the gate hot upon returning in 2023, but has cooled off a bit as of late. Nevertheless, his stuff should fare well against a weak Nationals lineup.
Mackenzie Gore will take the bump for the Nats. The young lefty is turning into one of the team’s most consistent starters since they acquired him from the San Diego Padres in the Juan Soto deal.
Despite the solid production both clubs are getting from Paxton and Gore, there is still value to be had on this to go over the run total. The current price at Over 9 runs (-114) at BetRivers has 3% positive expected value. The true odds of this Red Sox-Nationals bet should be at -121 given the 55% win rate. It’s worth staking just over 1% of your bankroll if you’re using the full Kelly Criterion bet sizing.
Best MLB Red Sox-Nationals Overnight Bet: Over 9 Runs (-114) at BetRivers
Brewers-Dodgers MLB Overnight Odds
Odds via BetRivers Sportsbook
Brewers: -158 | Dodgers: +134
Brewers: +1.5: -125 | Dodgers: -1.5: +104
Under 8.5: -115 | Over 8.5: -105
The Milwaukee Brewers are in a dog fight with the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central. Milwaukee looked like they could control the division after the Cincinnati Reds began to fade, but in marched the Cubs who are one of the hottest teams in baseball. Unfortunately for the Brewers, things won’t get any easier. They are in the midst of a road trip and have to faceoff in a three game series with the formidable Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Dodgers are one of the best in baseball, and they’ll have their ace Clayton Kershaw back for Wednesday’s game. Kershaw has made one start since returning from the injured list, hurling five innings of one run ball against the Colorado Rockies last Thursday. He only threw 67 pitches in that first outing, but in his second start since returning the Dodgers are likely to let him go deeper into the game. That could be trouble for the Brewers.
Milwaukee will have Wade Miley on the mound for this one. Miley is a crafty veteran who can get outs and eat innings. However, pitchers often need a lot better stuff to handle the Dodgers’ lineup.
Of course, if Wiley can bring his “A Game” Wednesday night’s game could be a low scoring affair. You can grab the Under 8.5 runs (-105) at BetRivers, which has a 3% positive expectation. This Brewers-Dodgers bet has true odds of -123 and like the previous game has an expected win rate of 55%. Once again, it’s worth laying just over 1% of your bankroll using the full Kelly Criterion.
Best MLB Brewers-Dodgers Overnight Bet: Under 8.5 Runs (-105) at BetRivers
Phillies-Blue Jays MLB Overnight Odds
Odds via BetRivers Sportsbook
Phillies: +120 | Blue Jays: -142
Phillies +1.5: -162 | Blue Jays -1.5: +136
Over 8: -105 | Under 8: -117
The Philadelphia Phillies and Toronto Blue Jays didn’t put up much offense in Game 1 of their series on Tuesday night. The Phillies managed to score one run in the top of the 6th inning, which was immediately matched by Toronto. The scoring stopped until the bottom of the 8th when the Blue Jays scored again. Jordan Romano came in and closed it out in the 9th for a Blue Jays victory.
These two teams will run it back tomorrow, and scoring might be hard to come by again. Aaron Nola will start for the Phillies. Of course, Nola needs no introduction because he has been one of the best starting pitchers in baseball for years. He gets the opportunity to duel with Kevin Gausman who is one of the few pitchers who can stand toe-to-toe with Nola statistically.
Wednesday’s game is a true pitcher’s duel, but there is still value on one Over for the first inning total. You can bet “Yes, Runs First Inning (YRFI), once again at BetRivers for +112. Nola and Gausman may be elite starting pitchers, but this Phillies-Blue Jays bet still has a 4% positive expected value given its true odds of +105 and 49% win rate. It’s worth staking 1% of your roll if you’re using the Kelly Criterion for sustainable growth.
Best MLB Phillies-Blue Jays Overnight Bet: Over 0.5 First Inning Runs (+112) at BetRivers
