Sports betting markets never stop. Thursday night’s MLB action is still ongoing, but it hasn’t stopped sportsbooks from releasing overnight MLB odds for Friday’s games. And with the lines out, OddsShopper’s market-based betting model can go to work, using a top down approach to find the best overnight MLB bets for Thursday’s slate. Things can change quickly on baseball betting markets, but let’s take a look at some overnight Twins-Orioles, Diamondbacks-Angels and Rays-Mariners odds and bets.
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MLB Overnight Bets: Twins-Orioles, Diamondbacks-Angels, Rays-Mariners
Twins-Orioles MLB Overnight Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Twins: -108 | Orioles: -108
Over 9: +100 | Under 9: -122
The Minnesota Twins will have the benefit of a day off when they open a weekend series against the Baltimore Orioles on Friday night. The Twins will need the rest and day off to travel north after getting swept by the Atlanta Braves this week. Pablo Lopez takes the hill for the Twins in Baltimore. The 27-year old SP has not had as much success in 2023 as he enjoyed in the earlier part of his career spent with the Miami Marlins. Lopez has a 4.41 ERA in sixteen starts this year, which is well above his career average. His downswing may be due to park factors away from the Marlins stadium, as Lopez does sport a solid 1.19 WHIP and 120 strikeouts in 96 IP.
The Orioles will get to rest at home, and they may need it as well. Baltimore dropped their last two games against the Cincinnati Reds after winning the first game of a three game set. The team had Thursday off to prepare for Minnesota. Dean Kramer will start the game for Baltimore. The youngster is enjoying one of his best seasons in the big leagues after coming up a couple years ago.
Although this game features two young starting pitchers, solid offense and a good hitter’s park, there is currently value on the total to go Under 9 runs at FanDuel. This Twins-Orioles MLB bet is priced at -122 but it has true odds of -130 according to the OddsShopper model. It has a 57% win rate, creating a 3% positive expected value. The bet is worth laying around 2% of your bank roll if you’re using Kelly Criterion staking.
Best MLB Twins-Orioles Overnight Bet: Under 9 Runs (-122) at FanDuel
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Diamondbacks-Angels MLB Overnight Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
D-Backs: +134 | Angels: -158
Over 9.5: +100 | Under 9.5: -122
The Los Angeles Angels beat the Chicago White Sox 4-2 on Tuesday on the back of a ten strikeout gem by Shohei Ohtani… who also homered twice in the game! The Angels missed his presence on the mound in the next two games of the series, giving up eighteen runs to the White Sox combined. They will hope to get that right against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Friday with Griffin Canning on the hill.
Arizona will be travelling immediately after their Thursday afternoon game against the Tampa Bay Rays wraps up. They’ll be licking their wounds after losing the last two games to the Rays, 3-2 and 6-1. Thursday’s game was over before it started, with Tampa jumping out to a 6-0 lead. The Diamondbacks held a lead into the 9th inning on Wednesday night before Tampa came back to win 3-2. The only bright spot in the series for Arizona was their 8-4 Game 1 win. They’ll have youngster Tommy Henry on the mound tomorrow versus the Angels.
The D-backs are a +134 moneyline underdog in this game, which holds a 2% edge according to the OddsShopper’s market-based model. The bet hits about 46% of the time, so you won’t want to put down a huge portion of your bank roll, but you can grab this +expected value bet before the market adjusts to the sharp linemakers.
Best MLB Diamondbacks-Angels Overnight Bet: D-Backs Moneyline (+134) at FanDuel
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Rays-Mariners MLB Overnight Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Rays: -140 | Mariners: +120
Over 7: -120 | Under 7: -100
The aforementioned Rays have won two straight and will now take their show on the road to play the Seattle Mariners. Tampa will have their ace ready to go when Shane McClanahan takes the mound. McClanahan sports a 2.23 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 100 strikeouts in 93 IP. His success is no surprise, as it comes on the heels of a breakout campaign in 2022 in which he finished 6th in AL Cy Young award voting. McClanahan was a strong candidate to takedown the hardware for most of the season before injury problems derailed him. He looks to be gaining momentum in 2023 and getting back to his success in the first 3/4 of last year.
Another young star will face off against McClanahan. Bryce Miller was recalled by the Mariners this season after a strong showing in Triple-A. Miller is one of the organization’s top prospects and has proved why in the early part of his career. He has a 3.88 ERA and minuscule .92 WHIP. Miller has hurled 49 strikeouts in 55.2 IP, as well. The rookie has been incredible outside of two outings in which he gave up a combined fifteen earned runs. Those were back-to-back starts against the New York Yankees and Texas Rangers on May 29th and June 4th, respectively.
Betting markets are still considering Miller to be a top young arm, which is reflected in this game’s total of seven runs. Yet that may be a little too low. OddsShopper’s model is finding a 2% positive expectation on the Over 7 Runs for this Rays-Mariners MLB overnight bet at DraftKings. You can grab the bet at -120 right now, but the true odds are -127. It’s expected to win 56% of the time, and is worth staking 1% of your bank roll using the Kelly Criterion.
Best MLB Rays-Mariners Overnight Bet: Over 7 Runs (-120) at DraftKings
