Market-making sportsbooks release lines early so that sharp bettors can give them information. When sharp action comes in on the opening lines, it allows the books to move them to the right price. In the meantime, there are inefficiencies in the MLB overnight odds that can be exploited. Let’s use OddsShopper’s market-based model to find Twins-Tigers, Rockies-Brewers and Cardinals-Rays MLB overnight bets for Monday night.
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MLB Overnight Bets: Twins-Tigers, Rockies-Brewers, Cardinals-Rays
Twins-Tigers MLB Overnight Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Twins: -126 | Tigers: +108
Twins: -1.5: +134 | Tigers: +1.5: -162
Over 8.5: +100 | Under 8.5: -122
The Minnesota Twins and Detroit Tigers opened a four-game series on Monday night. Things immediately went the Twins way, as they jumped all over Tigers’ starter Joey Wentz. Minnesota’s offense put up nine runs in the game, eight of them coming off of Wentz in the first three innings. The Tigers couldn’t match, and predictably struggled against the Twins’ Pablo Lopez who is one of their best pitchers.
The next game of the Twins-Tigers series is on Tuesday night. Things could be looking a bit better for Detroit with Eduardo Rodriguez scheduled to start. Rodriguez is a solid veteran and the top talent on their staff when healthy. He’ll face a Twins offense that strikes out more than any team in the league. It won’t be easy for the Tigers against Sonny Gray, who is another strong starter on the Twins staff, but the margin won’t be as steep.
Detroit is +108 on the moneyline at FanDuel, which has a positive expectation. The true odds of this Twins-Tigers bet should be +1-3, making it a 3% positive expected value. It’s worth betting just under .8% of your bank roll if you’re using full Kelly Criterion staking for sustainable growth.
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Best MLB Twins-Tigers Overnight Bet: Tigers Moneyline (+108) at FanDuel
Rockies-Brewers MLB Overnight Odds
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
Rockies: +185 | Brewers: -225
Rockies: +1.5: -115 | Brewers: -1.5: -105
Over 8.5: +100| Under 8.5: -120
The Milwaukee Brewers jumped all over the Colorado Rockies in Game 1 of their series on Monday. The Rockies failed to score again in the game after a first inning home run by Ezequiel Tovar, losing 12-1. The Brewers 12-run outburst wasn’t even the biggest story, as Freddy Peralta stole the show with a superb 7 inning, thirteen strikeout performance.
These teams will be back at it on Tuesday night. Kyle Freeland is on the mound for the Rockies. He’ll square off against Wade Miley for the Brewers. The two lefties are similar in age, talent and overall big league history. However, that history has often included run scoring. Freeland should be better than his typical averages given he pitches in Coors Field, but the run total may be just a bit low in the opening MLB overnight odds for this game.
You can grab the Over 8.5 runs for +100 at Caesars, which has a small 1% positive expected value. The true odds for this Rockies-Brewers bet should be -103 and it has a 51% win rate. It should be staked at just under .5% of your bankroll if you’re using the full Kelly Criterion.
Best MLB Rockies-Brewers Overnight Bet: Over 8.5 Runs (+100) at Caesars
Cardinals-Rays MLB Overnight Odds
Odds via BetRivers Sportsbook
Cardinals: +145 | Rays: -175
Cardinals +1.5: -155 | Rays -1.5: +123
Over 8: -108 | Under 8: -112
The Tampa Bay Rays got a much needed day off on Monday as they traveled back to Florida where they’ll host the St. Louis Cardinals. They’ll have Zach Eflin starting off the game against the Cardinals Miles Mikolas. Eflin has emerged as the Rays’ best starting pitcher after an injury plagued season for Tyler Glasnow and Shane McClanahan. On the other hand, Mikolas has been a mainstay in the Cardinals’ rotation for several years but he has never been anything close to number 1 or 2 starter material.
Tampa’s home park isn’t known to give up a ton of offense, but there is still a bit of value in the opening odds on the Over at BetRivers. Bettors can grab Over 8 runs at -108, which has a 1% positive expectation. This Cardinals-Rays bet has a win rate of 52% and true odds that should be -110. You can lay .37% of your roll using the full Kelly Criterion for sustainable bankroll growth.
Best MLB Cardinals-Rays Overnight Bet: Over 8 Runs (-108) at BetRivers
