When betting lines first open, market-making books allow the sharps to bet into them so they can learn the efficient price. That creates inefficiencies in the early part of betting markets while the line adjusts to sharp action. The early betting line inefficiencies in MLB overnight odds get smaller as the season goes on, but there are still a few spots to extract value on for Tuesday’s baseball action. Let’s take a look at OddsShopper’s market-based model to find the edges on White Sox-Cubs, Mariners-Royals and Orioles-Padres MLB overnight bets for Monday night.
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MLB Overnight Bets: White Sox-Cubs, Mariners-Royals, Orioles-Padres
White Sox-Cubs MLB Overnight Odds
Odds via PointsBet
White Sox: +180 | Cubs: -215
White Sox: +1.5: -115 | Cubs: -1.5: -104
Over 9: -105 | Under 9: -115
The Chicago White Sox and the Chicago Cubs will do battle for the second time this season on Tuesday. The Cubs swept the first “Crosstown Classic” between these intra-city rivals. They did so on the city’s South side in the home of the White Sox. Tuesday’s action will move to Wrigley Field on the city’s North side.
These two teams have gone in opposite directions since their last meeting. The White Sox tread water in the AL Central for a while, but eventually became sellers at the trade deadline when they couldn’t get over the hump. On the other hand, the Cubs have finally broken through and are pushing the Brewers for first place in the NL Central. The Cubs were spenders in the offseason, adding Jameson Taillon, Cody Bellinger and Dansby Swanson to a young ball club. The signings are paying dividends down the stretch.
It’s rare to find many MLB prop bets getting released this early, but you can get a little value already on some of the hitting props at PointsBet. Cody Bellinger is having a rebound campaign, hitting better than he has at any point over the last several seasons. However, the former Los Angeles Dodger is still a bit mispriced on his total bases props. You can get Bellinger to go under 1.5 Total Bases for -160. It’s a White-Sox Cubs bet that should be lined at -166 with it’s win rate of 62%. It’s nothing to break the bank on, but this 1% positive expected value wager will give you something to sweat for the Crosstown Classic. Staking at full Kelly Criterion, it’s worth laying about .75% of your bankroll for sustainable growth.
Best MLB White Sox-Cubs Overnight Bet: Cody Bellinger Under 1.5 Total Bases (-162) at PointsBet
Mariners-Royals MLB Overnight Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Mariners: -158 | Royals: +134
Mariners: +1.5: -125 | Royals: -1.5: +104
Under 9: +100 | Over 9: -122
Monday’s game between the Seattle Mariners and Kansas City Royals was a back and forth battle. The Royals were cruising behind Brady Singer, who took a no hitter into the sixth inning. He ended up going for seven innings of one run ball. Unfortunately for Singer and Royals, the tide turned when the Kansas City bullpen took over. The Mariners stormed back to tie the game and eventually take a 6-5 lead in the top of the 9th. That didn’t last long, and the Royals turned the tide once again, winning the game in the bottom of the 9th on a Dairon Blanco single.
The Mariners and Royals will be back at it on Tuesday night. Emerson Hancock is set to start for Seattle against Jordan Lyles for K.C. The MLB overnight odds for this Mariners-Royals bet are just a bit off in Kansas City’s direction. You can grab Kansas City on the moneyline at +134 at FanDuel. The bet has true odds of +131, giving it a 1% positive expectation. The bet is worth staking .3% of your bankroll using full Kelly Criterion bet sizing.
Best MLB Mariners-Royals Overnight Bet: Royals Moneyline (+134) at FanDuel
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Orioles-Padres MLB Overnight Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Orioles: +120 | Padres: -142
Orioles +1.5: -162 | Padres -1.5: +136
Over 8: -115 | Under 9: -105
The Baltimore Orioles are having their best season of the year. Baseball fans knew they would be improved behind one of the strongest farm systems in the league. They didn’t realize that the turnaround would happen so fast for the Orioles. Their 73 wins is the second highest in the majors behind just the Atlanta Braves.
Despite their success, the O’s aren’t getting much love in the early MLB Overnight odds for their game on Tuesday against the San Diego Padres. They’ll send the newly acquired Jack Flaherty to the mound to face off against Michael Wacha. Flaherty struggled over the last couple seasons with the St. Louis Cardinals, but he has looked much better in his brief stint in Baltimore.
You can grab Baltimore +1.5 (-162) at DraftKings, which has just under a 1% positive ROI. The true odds of this Orioles-Padres bet are -165 with it’s 62% win rate. It’s worth staking about .35% of your bankroll using the full Kelly Criterion for sustainable growth.
Best MLB Orioles-Padres Overnight Bet: Orioles +1.5 (-162) at DraftKings
