Major league baseball is back! It’s not the easiest sport to watch right now, of course — you’ll have to get up at 6 a.m. ET to tune in — but we’re also just barely over a week away from Opening Day back in the United States. Let’s get some MLB picks down for Thursday’s action, namely one player prop bet and one home run pick. If you’re hungry for more, check out our MLB betting tools or our other MLB articles!
MLB Picks Today: Home Run & Player Prop Bets for Padres-Dodgers
Padres-Dodgers MLB Player Prop Bet for Freddie Freeman
Well, here we go again. I recommended betting on LHH Freddie Freeman for the first game of the Seoul Series, and I’m going to do it again. Sure, Freeman just went hitless in the opener, but he was walked twice and hit by a pitch once. He got on base — just not in a way that benefited us. Look for him to get his first hit of the season on Thursday.
Freeman will line up against RHP Joe Musgrove for this one, which has been a solid matchup for him historically — the veteran slugger is slashing .448/.529/.724 versus Musgrove with 18 hits, five extra-base hits and a home run. His expected stats are similarly impressive, as he owns a .349 xBA and .532 xSLG, both of which suggest his production level is at least somewhat sustainable.
While Musgrove was steady versus LHHs last year, holding them to .219/.271/.323, he has allowed them to slash a less-impressive .240/.303/.413 for his career. Last year, Freeman notched five plate appearances against Musgrove and slashed .400/.500/.600. Freeman is trading at odds of +100 to go over 1.5 total bases at Fanatics, which is a great deal relative to the rest of the market. We can also boost him from -110 to +118 at DraftKings.
Padres-Dodgers MLB Player Prop: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases +100 at Fanatics | +118 Boosted at DraftKings
Padres-Dodgers Home Run Pick for Shohei Ohtani
With RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto making his first MLB start on Thursday, it’s hard to get a handle on the value batter for the San Diego Padres. Yamamoto struggled in Spring Training, surrendering an 8.38 ERA over 9.2 innings pitched, but he kept the ball in the park. He surrendered just two home runs in 164 innings pitched in the NPB last year.
Like Yamamoto, Musgrove also underperformed in Spring Training. He coughed up a 13.50 ERA over six innings pitched and gave up a home run. However, he coughed up 10 home runs (on only 6.1 expected home runs!) last season. I’m unsure how to compare Yamamoto’s NPB dominance to Musgrove’s solid MLB form, so we’re taking a market-informed dart throw for our Padres-Dodgers home run pick.
RHH Ha-seong Kim, the Korean-born shortstop for the Padres, is trading at odds that vary wildly from +850 at BetMGM to +560 at FanDuel. That’s a pretty massive split! Kim launched two home runs in an exhibition game at this stadium, so we know he’s got the power to go yard at this park. Admittedly, this pick is somewhat of a narrative play, but with two power-limiting pitchers on the mound, it’s a better bet than swallowing the juice for, say, Fernando Tatis Jr.
Padres-Dodgers MLB Home Run Pick: Ha-seong Kim +850 at BetMGM
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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