The MLB makes its triumphant return on March 20 — but this year, it’s at 6 a.m. ET and in South Korea. Still, if you’re awake early enough, you’ll get to witness the return of America’s pastime on an international stage. What better way to celebrate than by tailing today’s MLB picks, which include player prop and home run bets, that we’ve dug up with the help of OddsShopper Premium? If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our MLB betting tools or our other MLB articles!
MLB Picks Today: Home Run & Player Prop Bets for the Seoul Series
Seoul Series MLB Player Prop Bet for Freddie Freeman
With the San Diego Padres trotting out RHP Yu Darvish, LHH Freddie Freeman stands out as an excellent pick on the MLB player prop markets. Freeman is coming off an excellent season in which he recorded the third-best xBA (.323) and seventh-best xSLG (.565) in baseball, and he draws a pitcher against whom he has a favorable record.
Freeman has tallied 31 at-bats versus Darvish, through which he is slashing .290/.353/.646. He has recorded nine hits, five of which went for extra bases and two of which went over the fence. Although Freeman is better known for his effectiveness against LHPs than RHPs, Darvish struggles mightily with opposite-handed batsmen. He allowed them to slash .271/.342/.457 last season, coughing up 76 hits, 31 extra-base hits and 10 home runs.
Freeman is trading at a stingy -115 to tally over 1.5 bases at BetMGM, but that’s still beating the price at Pinnacle, a sharp sportsbook. Although I’m reticent to cough up that much for an over, FanDuel is making the pill easier to swallow with their 30% profit boost. We can get Freeman to tally over 1.5 bases for much friendlier odds of +104 over there — at least for your maximum boost amount. I’m probably not betting him to home run, but you could do worse!
Seoul Series MLB Player Prop Bet: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases -115 at BetMGM or +104 Boosted at FanDuel
Seoul Series Home Run Pick for Shohei Ohtani
OddsShopper’s model recommends getting some action on LHH Shohei Ohtani to go yard in his debut for the Los Angeles Dodgers. While backing any batter to go yard for odds of only +280 may not seem like that thrilling of a proposition, this wager has positive expected value (+EV) because we’re beating the market by a substantial margin.
Ohtani is trading at odds of +203 (33%) to go yard at Pinnacle, a sharp book. That number sits no shorter than +240 (29.4%) at every widely available public book, except FanDuel, which has decided to lay a very generous +280 (26.3%).
You don’t beat a sharp book by 6.7% all that often, but that’s the case with this wager, which is why the model recommends pouncing on the over.
Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, are enough to dramatically transform your bankroll. Over the last seven days, we’re cutting up the books for an 8.9% ROI, including a 16.5% ROI on one specific NBA player prop market.
If you haven’t signed up for OddsShopper Premium, you can do so for $1 this week with promo code “PURDUE”. A typical weekly subscription costs $14.95, so if you’ve ever wanted to try out our +EV betting tools, now’s the time.
Seoul Series MLB Home Run Pick: Shohei Ohtani +280 at FanDuel
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2024 MLB predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this MLB season — make sure to check out the rest of our MLB articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
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