The OddsShopper MLB PrizePicks tools gives users the best possible chance to hit big on a large PrizePicks play. Today the models are keen on St. Louis Cardinals prospect Matthew Liberatore, who was recently called up to the team to (hopefully) provide a spark to their struggling rotation. Using OddsShopper’s PrizePicks Builder, let’s take a look at one six-leg MLB entry that has a high EV for Wednesday’s slate.
Editors Note: Article was Originally Published Morning of May 17
MLB PrizePicks Player Projections | May 17
Matthew Liberatore Over 4.5 Strikeouts
Liberatore, a 23-year-old prospect in the Cardinals organization, had a cup of coffee at the big league level last season. He is expected to stay with the club for a longer period of time this year as the team shifts to a six-man rotation for the foreseeable future. Liberatore’s 2023 debut comes against a Brewers offense that struggles against left-handers. Milwaukee entered Tuesday’s matchup with lefty Jordan Montgomery hitting under .200 against southpaws. While they were able to scratch across three runs off Montgomery and chase him after just 5.1 innings, the Brewers also struck out seven times in the process.
Liberatore has already struck out 56 batters in just 46.0 innings at the minor league level, and it is fair to expect that trend to continue at the big league level. The PrizePicks tool gives Liberatore a 57% chance of hitting the over on strikeouts, making it a solid leg to add to the PrizePicks entry.
Kodai Senga Over 5.5 Strikeouts
Like with most of the Mets team, it has been a disappointing start to the season for prized offseason acquisition Kodai Senga. The Japanese phenom has had spurts of success but fell flat in recent outings while consistently failing to get deep into games. The latest hiccup for the Mets starter came in his last outing against the Reds when he was pulled after allowing five earned runs in five innings.
Still, Senga’s strikeout numbers have been there. He has gone over 5.5 strikeouts in five of his seven starts on the season, making the over a valuable play, even against a tough Tampa Bay Rays lineup. OddsShopper’s model gives Senga a 55% chance of going over the total in this start.
Matt Mervis Over 0.5 Bases
Chicago Cubs fans finally got their wish when slugging first baseman Matt Mervis was called up from Triple-A earlier in the month to take the everyday job away from struggling veteran Eric Hosmer. After getting off to a slow start to his MLB career, Mervis is starting to look comfortable at the dish. He hit his first MLB home run on Tuesday, adding another base knock later in the game.
Mervis will undoubtedly be back in the lineup against Houston Astros right-hander J.P. France and will look to continue his current hot streak. The PrizePicks tool gives Mervis a 54% chance of rolling over his Tuesday performance and going over 0.5 bases on Wednesday.
Drew Smyly Under 3.5 Strikeouts
Smyly has been a solid contributor to start the season but does not profile as much of a strikeout pitcher. He bounced back from a rough outing against the Miami Marlins to get the win over the Twins, limiting the Minnesota offense to two runs over six innings.
Smyly still only notched four strikeouts in that start and has just 38 strikeouts in over 44 innings on the year. He will try to limit the dangerous and hot Astros lineup on Wednesday night, but do not expect him to generate too many whiffs. OddsShopper gives Smyly a 54% chance of coming in under 4.5 strikeouts.
Taijuan Walker Under 4.5 Strikeouts
The Philadelphia Phillies thought they got a proven arm in the offseason when they added Taijuan Walker, but so far it has been a struggle for him. Walker has an inflated 5.75 ERA in his eight starts to kick off his Phillies tenure. He will have a chance to turn the tide when taking the ball against the San Francisco Giants this afternoon, but OddsShopper models advise to keep fading Walker.
OddsShopper gives Walker a 52% chance of coming in under 4.5 strikeouts, making this another potential leg to add to any MLB PrizePicks entry.
J.P. France Under 5.5 Strikeouts
The Astros are hoping to catch lightning in a bottle with J.P. France. He has spent most of his professional career in the minor leagues but has been pitching well for Triple-A. With Houston dealing with a couple of injuries in their rotation, France is now getting a shot at the major league level early on in the season. So far, he is making the most of it.
France has allowed just one earned run in his two starts this season, earning the win in a six-inning performance his last time out. However, he has only struck out eight batters in those innings and remains a solid option to go under the 5.5-strikeout mark. The PrizePicks model gives France a 53% chance of coming in under 5.5 strikeouts against the Cubs.
This six-leg MLB PrizePicks play has just a 2% chance of hitting, but the projections have it as a positive ROI for those looking to make the most of a shot-in-the-dark play. MLB PrizePicks players can take advantage of all OddsShopper tools for the remainder of the season!
