Happy Mother’s Day! All 15 MLB teams are in action, starting at 1:35 p.m. ET, so celebrate all the moms in your life by wagering on a pair of player props and one bet from our MLB betting model. If you haven’t tried out the +EV betting tools I’ve been using to build the bankroll for the last few weeks, you can get them for 50% off — keep scrolling to see the exclusive coupon code!
Looking for more sports betting picks and analysis? Check out our MLB betting tools, including our MLB weather report, or our other MLB articles! Also, our guides about +EV MLB betting, MLB player prop strategy and home run betting strategy may be of assistance.
MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Pick Today: Sunday, May 12
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Josh Lowe
The Tampa Bay Rays have been one of the most aggressive teams in the MLB on the basepaths this season, stealing an American League-high 47 bags. Built for speed more than power, the Rays will look to take advantage of whichever New York Yankees catcher they face on Sunday, either Austin Wells or Jose Trevino. Though we’d prefer to see Trevino for stolen base purposes, the Rays won’t be shy to run against either catcher.
Trevino ranks 65th among all catchers in pop time, averaging 2.06 seconds, and has caught just three runners attempting to take second base this season. Wells is only slightly better with a 1.96 pop time and has caught just one runner in nine stolen base attempts. In five games against the Yankees this season, Tampa Bay has combined to steal nine bases, including one against today’s starting pitcher, Luis Gil. The Rays aren’t afraid to run and should be looking to swipe bags early and often today.
Josh Lowe returned from the injured list on Monday and has yet to attempt a stolen base, but fresh off a full day of rest yesterday, he’s poised to get moving on the basepaths Sunday. Lowe swiped a career-high 32 bases last season and was caught just three times, showcasing some excellent speed and good baserunning skills. Listed at +520 on FanDuel, Lowe’s odds are just too darn high to pass up.
Though Lowe hasn’t taken off yet this season, he was one of the most prolific base stealers in the league last year. His long odds and potential to run in this matchup make him an ideal bet for Sunday’s action.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Josh Lowe Over 0.5 Stolen Bases (+520 at FanDuel)
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Matt Carpenter
What year is it? Well, we said the same things a couple of years ago when Carpenter exploded for 15 home runs in just 128 at-bats with the New York Yankees. Now Carpenter is back where he began his career, with the St. Louis Cardinals. He earned his first start since April 1 on Saturday and finished 2-for-4 with a double. Today our model suggests that he’ll leave the yard against the Milwaukee Brewers. OddsShopper’s MLB betting model recommends jumping on board Carpenter’s home run prop, but make sure you book it with FanDuel to get the best positive expected value (+EV):
As the model shows, the +540 at FanDuel is far and away the best odds offered on Carpenter’s home run prop this afternoon. No other public books list this bet for any better than +460, creating an 80-cent discrepancy, while the true odds are +438.
So how does our model draw that conclusion? It draws in the odds from across the sports betting market; adjusts for hold, book sharpness and other factors; then generates a breakeven price (called “true odds”) for each bet.
Over a large sample, bets like this one will transform your bankroll. Not every bet will win, but we have the results and back-tested simulations to show our model is worth it.
For the rest of our tools’ picks, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Make sure to use promo code “POSITIVE” to get your first week or month for 50% off (the regular prices are $14.95 and $49.95)!
MLB Betting Model Pick: Matt Carpenter to Hit a Home Run (+540 at FanDuel)
MLB Home Run Pick Today: William Contreras
The Milwaukee Brewers will finish off their series against their division rival St. Louis Cardinals on Saturday. With a victory today, the Brewers would complete a four-game sweep of the Cardinals and extend their lead in the NL Central. Miles Mikolas takes the mound for St. Louis looking to help the Cardinals snap a seven-game losing streak.
William Contreras will likely bat in the top third of the order against Mikolas, hoping to tee off against the veteran pitcher. Contreras has gone 4-for-9 in his career against Mikolas, including a double, but we’re looking for him to leave the yard today. Mikolas has given up eight home runs in 42.0 innings, one of the highest HR/9 rates in the MLB among pitchers with at least 30 innings this season.
Contreras hasn’t left the yard since April 25, but his 41.2% hard-contact rate ranks third among qualified hitters across the MLB. Contreras has evolved into one of the elite hitters in the MLB, and with his +400 odds against a homer-prone pitcher, we have to jump on that line.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: William Contreras To Hit a Home Run (+400 at FanDuel)
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2024 MLB predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this MLB season — make sure to check out the rest of our MLB articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
