The last few days of MLB betting have been a struggle for me. I cashed total bases and home run tickets for Bobby Witt Jr. yesterday that you could’ve tailed from my Pikkit (@ISIROIS), but other than that it, was a pretty tough day. Let’s bounce back tonight. We’re getting exposure to one player prop bet, one home run pick and one bet from our MLB betting model. If you’re hungry for more, check out our MLB betting tools or our other MLB articles! Also, check out our guides about how to bet on MLB player props and home run betting strategy.
MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today: Friday, April 12
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Yordan Alvarez
The Houston Astros and Texas Rangers will do battle tonight as the ‘Stros look to climb their way out of the deep hole they have dug for themselves early this season. One of the few bright spots for Houston has been LHH Yordan Alvarez, who hasn’t fallen off after a strong performance last year.
Alvarez has opened the season with a slash line of .327/.393/.600, mashing seven extra-base hits and four home runs. His .376 xBA and .825 xSLG suggest that his high production is sustainable — and that he could be generating even more of it. Alvarez recorded a .300 xBA to go with a .626 xSLG last season.
The Rangers will trot out RHP Dane Dunning, who has not gotten out to a hot start like Alvarez. Dunning has surrendered a 6.86 xERA with three actual and 2.9 expected home runs. He has allowed four batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences in Houston.
The weather calls for 10 mph winds blowing straight out of Minute Maid Park today. That isn’t as fast as those we’ll see in other stadiums (20 mph at Camden Yards, 22 at Guaranteed Rate Field), but Alvarez’s absurd statistical profile makes him a must-bet option today.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Yoradn Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases +100 at ESPN & Home Run +280 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Yordan Alvarez total bases live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Dane Dunning
I’ve plucked three straight losers from our MLB betting model to feature in this column, which is absurdly unlucky — and I suspect it means I’m due to at least accidentally pick a winner. I use our market-based betting model to build a big prop card each day because the more +EV bets you place, the better protected your bankroll is from variance. I also happen to agree with the idea of fading Dunning today (see above) — his 26.7% strikeout rate (67th percentile) is good but unsustainable relative to the 19.4% (22nd percentile) we saw from him last year.
Are you curious about how the model works? Read our guide to using +EV tools! In short, they take in all the odds from across the market; adjust for factors like book sharpness and hold; and use that data to produce the true odds (a breakeven price) for each bet. That number lets us identify off-market lines that give us positive expective value (+EV). For the rest of our tools’ picks, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium — you can use promo code “ISIROIS” to get your first week for 20% off ($11.96)!
On Friday, the MLB betting model advises betting on Dunning’s under on the strikeout market because of an odds disparity: the under 4.5 will cost you only +105 at Hard Rock (and +100 at DraftKings) despite Pinnacle, a sharp book, pricing it at -127. We’re scoring a ton of edge relative to the market with this one because true odds for it clock in at -108!
Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll just as they transformed mine! From the start of the NBA season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Dane Dunning Under 4.5 Total Strikeouts +105 at Hard Rock
For the best price currently available, check out our Dane Dunning total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Bryce Harper
Ugh, Isaiah, are we really picking another favorite to go yard today? Yep! We’re riding with LHH Bryce Harper in Philadelphia this evening with a shaky pitcher on the mound and 18 mph winds blowing out through right field at Citizens Bank Park today.
Harper could’ve started the season more efficiently. His slash line of .196/.288/.435 is bad, but the five extra-base hits and three home runs are somewhat encouraging. Harper slashed .293/.401/.499 last year, so he should benefit from regression at some point.
Harper’s expected stats are also outpacing his actual production. He sports a far less terrible .243 xBA to go with a .451 xSLG. His 2.7 expected home runs aren’t great, but all three of his actual home runs would’ve cleared the fences in Philadelphia.
He’ll also take on LHP Bailey Falter, who has coughed up two excepted home runs this year, both of which would’ve gone yard in Philadelphia, to go with a 4.30 xERA (45th percentile). He coughed up a brutal 17 actual and 18.9 expected home runs with the Phillies in 2022 as well.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases +100 at FanDuel & Home Run +260 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Bryce Harper home run live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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