Ugh — yesterday’s frontloaded MLB slate gave us few choices among the late games, and we lost bets for Jake Cronenworth, Dakota Hudson and Joey Gallo. We did minimize our exposure by at least not playing Gallo on the hirs or bases market, but it’s a far cry from the two correct home run calls we had on Wednesday. Let’s bounce back today! I have action on a few MLB player props, including one home run pick and one bet from our MLB betting model. If you haven’t tried out the +EV betting tools I’ve been using to pay my rent, you can get them for 50% off — scroll down to find out how!
Looking for more sports betting picks and analysis? Check out our MLB betting tools, including our MLB weather report, or our other MLB articles! Also, our guides about +EV MLB betting, MLB player prop strategy and home run betting strategy may be of assistance.
MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today: Friday, April 26
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Francisco Lindor
I posted four total base and home run bets in our Discord this morning, and I’ll spotlight two in this article. First up, we’ll start with my favorite pitcher to fade on this slate: RHP Miles Mikolas. Mikolas sports a brutal 6.49 ERA that isn’t much better than his 5.82 xERA. The 35-year-old pitcher has already coughed up five actual and 4.9 expected home runs this year.
Only two of Mikolas’ batted balls allowed would’ve cleared the fences of Citi Field, so it’s a good thing that the MLB weather report calls for 10 mph winds blowing out through center field.
We’re targeting Francisco Lindor against Mikolas today. The veteran shortstop is no stranger to Mikolas, with four hits (one of which went for extra bases) against him over 11 at-bats.
Lindor is having an okay start to the year. His slash line (.206/.291/.361) isn’t good, but his .265 xBA and .428 xSLG suggest he has gotten unlucky, and there’s no time like the present for his actual stats to start improving.
He’ll also benefit from Mikolas’ struggles against opposite-handed batters, who have slashed .315/.371/.537 this season with eight extra-base hits and two home runs.
Once Mikolas exits, Lindor will face a bullpen that ranks 13th-worst in WHIP (1.27) and has allowed nine home runs. I have action on Lindor to record multiple bases (+125 at bet365) and hit a home run (+500 at BetMGM). Those prices are just good enough for me today.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 Total Bases & Home Run +500 at BetMGM
For the best price currently available, check out our Francisco Lindor total bases live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Alex Verdugo
The New York Yankees will visit the Milwaukee Brewers tonight. It’s supposed to be RHP Colin Rea on the bump for the Brewers today, who sports an impressive 2.08 ERA. (Note: his 6.09 xERA and .328 xBA allowed are both awful). But for as shaky as Rea has been this year, it still makes some sense to fade Alex Verdugo tonight. Our MLB betting model wants his total bases under because we’re beating the market. This Verdugo under has a ton of positive expected value (+EV) at Fanatics:
The model shows that a wager on Verdugo to stay under 1.5 total bases will cost you only -160 at Fanatics despite costing -180 almost everywhere else. Pinnacle, a sharp book, is charging a whopping -192 for this wager, so don’t expect the price at Fanatics to stick around forever.
You may have questions about how the model works — and whether it’s profitable. To answer the first, you can find out more by perusing our guide to using +EV betting tools, but I’ll give you the rundown: our tools index the odds from across the market; adjust those odds for hold, book sharpness and other factors; and identify a breakeven price point (called “true odds“) for each bet.
Bets like this one, when wagered over a sufficiently large sample, can transform your bankroll — just as they transformed mine! Not every bet will win, and it won’t happen overnight, but we have the results to prove it.
For the rest of our tools’ picks (and for more than just the MLB! It’s compatible with every major American sport), subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Make sure to use promo code “POSITIVE” to get your first week or month for 50% off (the regular prices are $14.95 and $49.95)!
MLB Betting Model Pick: Alex Verdugo Under 1.5 Total Base -160 Fanatics
For the best price currently available, check out our Alex Verdugo total bases live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Julio Rodriguez
If you’re a frequent reader of this column, yes, Adolis Garcia (+265 at FanDuel) is once again trading with +EV. But instead of spotlighting him, I want to focus on this Julio Rodriguez bet because we’re beating the market by an absolute TON. We’re getting him at +450 on FanDuel despite every other book listing this bet for +330 or shorter, including Pinnacle, where it’ll cost you +247.
Rodriguez draws Arizona’s ace, Zac Gallen. While Gallen sports a scary 0.53 ERA at home, that number balloons to 7.20 on the road. Gallen has coughed up two home runs and a .370 batting average when playing on the road, and while that’s a small sample, it’s not like the San Francisco or Colorado offenses are all that good.
Every time I use the model to bet on home runs, I have to remind you guys that baseball is a 162-game season. Even if you’re not cashing every one of our model’s home run picks, you don’t need to have close to a 50% win rate to be profitable — these wagers are almost always +250 or longer, allowing you to miss more than a few and still make money. If you’re skeptical of our long-term profitability, just check out our simulations.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Julio Rodriguez Home Run +450 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Julio Rodriguez home run live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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