We can finally expect consistent MLB action moving forward, which offers up plenty of amazing sports betting angles for us to exploit. Let’s dive into my recommended MLB player prop picks for Friday’s exciting slate — we’re getting exposure to one player prop bet, one home run pick and one bet from our MLB betting model. If you’re hungry for more, check out our MLB betting tools or our other MLB articles! Also, check out our guide to MLB player prop betting.
MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today: Friday, March 29
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Yordan Alvarez
The New York Yankees beat the Houston Astros yesterday in a close Opening Day game, but now it’s time for the Astros to bounce back. New York will trot out LHP Carlos Rodon, who struggled mightily last year, recording a 5.34 xERA that ranked in the 14th percentile. He coughed up 15 actual and 16.7 expected home runs in only 64.1 innings pitched.
LHH Yordan Alvarez may not hit a home run today, but he should certainly tally multiple bases. He did so yesterday, too, hitting a pair of singles to cash the over 1.5. Alvarez slashed .295/.385/.507 versus LHP last season, racking up 18 extra-base hits in 174 plate appearances.
The 26-year-old batter was utterly dominant in expected metrics last season. He recorded a .300 xBA (97th percentile) and a .626 xSLG (99th). He ranked in the 95th percentile or higher for average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Alvarez has squared off with Rodon a few times in the past. Across 10 at-bats, Alvarez is slashing .300/.417/.600 against the LHP, tallying three hits, one of which cleared the fences, and only one walk. Once Rodon exits, Alvarez will benefit from facing a bullpen that ranked only 19th entering the year, per Fangraphs.
Pinnacle, a sharp sportsbook, is taking action on this MLB player prop at odds of only +115 today, so we’re beating the market by a healthy margin with the +118 available at Caesars.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases +118 at Caesars
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Jake Cronenworth
My top prop is out of the way, so what does our MLB betting model recommend playing? By indexing the odds across every sportsbook, it helps us find off-market prices for bets that we know have positive expective value (+EV). For more picks from our tools, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium — our products are already much less expensive than our competitors, as we charge $14.95 per week and $49.95 per month versus their $150-plus — and you can use my code (“ISIROIS”) to take 20% off.
On Friday, the MLB betting model advises fading Jake Cronenworth of the San Diego Padres. He’ll line up against the San Francisco Giants and LHP Kyle Harrison, a 22-year-old budding star who looked impressive last season in limited action.
Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll just as they transformed mine! From the start of the NBA season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
Cronenworth wasn’t an efficient batter last year, especially when facing LHPs. He slashed a brutal .229/.301/.364 against lefties last season. None of his tracking stats stand out as particularly impressive, either — he recorded a .238 xBA (27th percentile) and a .370 xSLG (18th percentile).
Although Harrison is relatively inexperienced, don’t expect Cronenworth to do much at the plate today. He has tallied five hits on the year, four of which came in Seoul, and should struggle against the Giants today. Once Harrison exits, Cronenworth must deal with a bullpen that ranked a steady 14th in collective ERA (3.92).
MLB Betting Model Pick: Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 Total Hits +150 at Hard Rock
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Anthony Rizzo
I pulled this MLB home run pick from our MLB betting model, but I agree with it strongly for projections-based reasons. LHH Anthony Rizzo is a solid slugger — he recorded a 41.2% sweet-spot rate, which ranked in the 97th percentile last year — but the results just weren’t there for him. Today’s matchup with RHH Cristian Javier is a great spot for him to pop off.
Javier struggled last season, recording a 4.42 xERA (39th percentile). He allowed LHH like Rizzo to slash .273/.345/.470 with 12 home runs and 37 extra-base hits. Importantly, Javier also coughed up a monstrous 31.8 expected home runs, fifth-most in the entire MLB. Minute Maid Park is pretty balanced as far as park factors go, but Rizzo has a better chance of hitting a home run than his odds suggest.
Again, I pulled this from the model, and it’s popping as a +EV bet today due to a significant disparity between the odds at FanDuel and the rest of the market. You’ll find this same wager trading for only +343 at Pinnacle and, at the longest, +480 on other public sportsbooks. Even if Rizzo doesn’t go yard today, this bet is a profitable one over the long term.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Anthony Rizzo +600 at FanDuel
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