Let’s go! Yesterday’s column picked winners for Nolan Arenado and Sonny Gray, and while we didn’t get a winning home run ticket, we didn’t need one to make a profit. Tonight, I advise getting some action on a few MLB player props, including two home run picks and two bets from our MLB betting model. Want to take our profitable MLB betting tools for a spin? You can get your first week or month for 50% off — keep reading to find out how!
Looking for more sports betting picks and analysis? Check out our MLB betting tools, including our MLB weather report, or our other MLB articles! Also, our guides about +EV MLB betting, MLB player prop strategy and home run betting strategy may be of assistance.
MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today: Friday, May 10
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Tyler O’Neill
It’s that time of the week again. The Washington Nationals will again trot out the corpse of LHP Patrick Corbin, whose 6.45 ERA and 6.10 xERA (7th percentile) are somehow not good enough to get the Nats to tap. Even worse is his .327 xBA allowed (1st percentile). It’s only a matter of time before he’s done, but before then, his starts are a great spot for us to exploit.
Tyler O’Neill stands out as a sharp bet against Corbin. Although most of O’Neill’s damage has come against RHPs thus far, he sports a solid .321/.513/.643 slash line against LHPs with five extra-base hits and two home runs.
O’Neill’s stellar season appears sustainable. While his .283/.393/.606 overall slash line is miles ahead of the .231/.312/.403 he recorded last year, his expected stats reveal that he isn’t just getting lucky — at least when it comes to power hits. O’Neill sports a .234 xBA (34th percentile) but a .525 xSLG (91st percentile).
It’s true that O’Neill has cooled off a lot since his red-hot start to the season — he’s slashing only .167/.259/.333 this month — the matchup with Corbin is a great get-right spot for him. Look for the veteran batsman to record an extra-base hit on Corbin. Even if he is held to a base hit or, worse, goes hitless, the Nats’ bullpen ranks 13th-worst in hits allowed.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Tyler O’Neill Over 1.5 Total Bases +100 at DraftKings & Home Run +390 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Tyler O’Neill total bases live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Clarke Schmidt
The New York Yankees will visit the Tampa Bay Rays tonight, and while the Rays aren’t good at much, they could be strikout out more. Tampa ranks 20th in strikeouts taken per game (8.8) and 17th at home (8.3). The Yankees will start RHP Clarke Schmidt, who is averaging 5.8 strikeouts per game and 5.7 on the road.
The MLB betting model recommends fading Schmidt tonight. Sure, his strikeout total (5.5) isn’t that high, and sure, his 27.3% strikeout rate (77th percentile) is impressive, but it’s likely he has been overperforming. Last year, his 21.5% strikeout rate (36th percentile) wasn’t nearly as high.) But our model recommends fading him not for any of those reasons but because we’re beating market and scoring positive expected value (+EV) at Fanatics:
This bet is trading at odds of between -120 and -130 at every other public book. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has this one priced at the far stingier -164. All of that is to say we’re getting a boatload of value by playing the under at Fanatics.
The model sees the under 5.5 as a +EV bet due to that exact market disapity. The tools work by indexing the odds from across the market; adjusting for book sharpness, hold and more; and estimating the true odds (or a “breakeven price”) for each bet. If we can get something for longer than its true odds, we’re getting it with +EV.
Over a large sample, bets like this one will transform your bankroll. Not every bet will win, but we have the results and back-tested simulations to show our model is worth it.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Clarke Schmidt Under 5.5 Total Strikeouts -120 at Hard Rock
For the best price currently available, check out our Clarke Schmidt total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Vinnie Pasquantino
When I follow my home run betting strategy, I begin by looking at the market. There’s no such thing as a good bet without a good number, and that’s what we’re getting at FanDuel. The next-best price is the +375 at Fanatics, and every other public book has this one trading between +350 to +325. We’re also beating the +360 at Pinnacle substantially.
But while we have a market-based edge, I like this bet for mostly projections-based reasons. The Angels will start RHP Griffin Canning, who has allowed lefty bats like Pasquantino to slash .302/.364/.523 with nine extra-base hits and five home runs. Canning has coughed up six actual and 7.2 expected home runs this season, including seven batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences at Angel Stadium.
The MLB weather report calls for 9.2 mph winds blowing out through right-center field, which is exactly what we look for when backing a lefty batsman. The 68-degree temperatures and 63% humidity help our case, too.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Vinnie Pasquantino Over 1.5 Total Bases +115 at FanDuel & Home Run +460 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Vinnie Pasquantino home runs live odds page!
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