The MLB rolls on with an exciting Monday slate. We’ll get action starting early in the afternoon, as the Atlanta Braves will take on the Chicago White Sox at 2 p.m. ET, but I’ve focused this column on games that start later to make sure you have enough time to tail these bets. Let’s dive into my recommended MLB player prop picks for Monday’s loaded card — we’re getting exposure to one player prop bet, one home run pick and one bet from our MLB betting model. If you’re hungry for more, check out our MLB betting tools or our other MLB articles! Also, check out our guide to MLB player prop betting.
MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today: Monday, April 1
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Bobby Witt Jr.
Let’s start today’s MLB player props column with a pick for RHH Bobby Witt Jr. I’m bullish on the Kansas City Royals this season, and while their 1-2 start wasn’t ideal, it also isn’t cataclysmic. Witt has opened the season slashing a red-hot .545/.615/1.273, which certainly isn’t sustainable, but we’re going to ride the hot hand today regardless.
Witt’s hot start may not be sustainable, but it’s fair to expect consistent production from him moving forward. Last year, he was an elite batter when looking at xBA (.294, 95th percentile) and xSLG (.533, 95th percentile). His 100th-percentile sprint speed certainly helps him score some extra bags, too.
Witt and the Royals will take on RHP Dean Kremer and the Baltimore Orioles in Camden Yards today. Kremer was shaky last season, recording a 4.93 xERA (22nd percentile) while allowing batters to tally a .270 xBA (17th percentile). However, he allowed RHHs like Witt only to slash .241/.289/.375 and primarily struggled against LHHs.
But there are exceptions to every rule, and Witt is one such case — in three at-bats versus Kremer in his rookie season, Witt mashed a pair of singles, which would’ve been enough to cash his prop of over 1.5 total bases. With two more years of experience under his belt, I expect a similar — if not a better — showing from him today.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases +115 at Fanatics
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Ronel Blanco
Witt is my favorite player on today’s slate, and instead of making more of my own projections, I’m using our MLB betting model to help build the rest of my card, and I’m especially excited about this before RHP Ronel Blanco. By indexing the odds across every sportsbook, it helps us find off-market prices for bets that we know have positive expective value (+EV). For more picks from our tools, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium — our products are already much less expensive than our competitors, as we charge $14.95 per week and $49.95 per month versus their $150-plus — and you can use my code (“ISIROIS”) to take 20% off.
Today, the MLB betting model recommends fading the starting pitcher for the Houston Astros, RHP Ronel Blanco, on the strikeout markets. The under 4.5 strikeouts will cost you only -122 at FanDuel despite Pinnacle, a sharp book, charging a whopping -159 for this one. We’re scoring a ton of edge on the market here.
Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll just as they transformed mine! From the start of the NBA season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
Blanco had an excellent spring training, but he wasn’t quite so excellent last year. He racked up 10.3 K/9 in the spring but notched only 9 K/9 last year. With a K% of only 46% in 2023, he ranked in the 46th percentile. He now draws a Toronto Blue Jays lineup that ranks 10th in strikeouts taken per game this year (8.3).
Unless Blanco can take major strides over what we saw from him last year, he’ll struggle to strike out five of Toronto’s batters before exiting. He averaged 5.4 IP as a starter last season.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Ronel Blanco Under 4.5 Strikeouts -122 at FanDuel
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Jarren Duran
Let’s wrap things up with a home run pick that stands out from our model. We’re backing LHH Jarren Duran of the Boston Red Sox in his matchup with RHP Joe Boyle and the Oakland Athletics. The Oakland Coliseum may not be a hitter’s park, but it ranks a not-so-terrible 23rd in park factors for home runs by LHH.
The model likes Duran today because of a major market disparity, causing this bet to render as a +EV bet today. FanDuel is charging only +750 for this one, but every other public book is taking action on it at +575 or shorter. Fanatics even has this priced down to +500.
Long-shot home run bets like this one won’t hit every night, but if you tail our model and place six to eight of them each day, our simulations suggest (and Greg Ehrenberg’s betting results confirm) that you will profit over the long term.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Jarren Duran +750 at FanDuel
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