Saturday’s column cashed total base and home run bets for Richie Palacios, enough to offset our losing bet on RHP Tyler Glasnow. Today offers up a loaded MLB card, and the late-slate game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Oakland Athletics is even on ESPN+. Today, I have action on a few MLB player props, including one home run pick and one bet from our MLB betting model. If you haven’t tried out the +EV betting tools I’ve been using to pay my rent for the last few months, you can get them for 50% off — keep scrolling to see the exclusive coupon code!
Looking for more sports betting picks and analysis? Check out our MLB betting tools, including our MLB weather report, or our other MLB articles! Also, our guides about +EV MLB betting, MLB player prop strategy and home run betting strategy may be of assistance.
MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today: Monday, April 29
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Bryce Harper
The Philadelphia Phillies are on the road to face the Los Angeles Angels today, and L.A. is expected to start struggling RHP Griffin Canning. Canning’s 4.89 xERA and.274 xBA allowed aren’t awful, but they both rank below the 25th percentile. canning also ranks 11th worst in expected home runs allowed with 6.2, six of which would’ve cleared the fences at Angel Stadium.
Canning’s struggles to open this season have stemmed from his poor performance against opposite-handed batsmen. LHHs have slashed a monstrous .333/.371/.587 against Canning with eight extra-base hits and four home runs.
Harper is off to a slow start to this season by his standards, but he should return to form soon. Last year, Harper recorded a .290 xBA and .530 xSLG, both of which ranked in the 93rd percentile. This year, those numbers are just .242 (43rd percentile) and .467 (79th).
As Canning has struggled against opposite-handed batters, Harper has performed relatively well. He is slashing .211/.318/.474 against them, with his dismal batting average being made up for by his five extra-base hits, all of which are home runs.
I’m backing Harper to record multiple bases (-115 at DraftKings) and go yard (+255 at FanDuel). Those odds aren’t very long, but I’m fine stomaching the risk to fade Canning tonight. It helps that the MLB weather report calls for warm temperatures, 45% humidity and 9 mph winds blowing out through right-center field.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases -115 at DraftKings & Home Run +255 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Bryce Harper total bases live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Ryan O’Hearn
The Baltimore Orioles will host the New York Yankees tonight. RHP Clarke Schmidt is expected to take the bump for New York. Schmidt owns a decent 3.55 ERA but only a 4.58 xERA (31st percentile), so he’s been getting lucky. Still, it’s a good day to fade Baltimore lefty Ryan O’Hearn, and our MLB betting model wants action on his total bases under since we’re beating the market. The odds have a ton of positive expected value (+EV) at Fanatics:
As you can see, Fanatics is taking action on this bet for O’Hearn at odds of -140, but no other public book has a price longer than -155. Pinnacle, a sharp book, is taking action on it at -168; DraftKings has this bet priced for -170.
So how does the model work? Here are the cliff notes (check out our guide to using +EV betting tools for more): our tools index the odds from across the sports betting market; adjust those odds for hold, book sharpness and more; and use that information to estimate the true odds (a breakeven price point) for each bet.
Over a large sample, bets like this one will transform your bankroll. Not every bet will win, but we have the results and backtested simulations to show our model is worth it. For the rest of our tools’ picks, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium.
Make sure to use promo code “POSITIVE” to get your first week or month for 50% off (the regular prices are $14.95 and $49.95)!
MLB Betting Model Pick: Ryan O’Hearn Under 1.5 Total Bases -140 at Fanatics
For the best price currently available, check out our Ryan O’Hearn total bases live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Ozzie Albies
It’s not every day that you see a home run pick trading with this much +EV, but because FanDuel is being so generous, we’re getting an absolute steal of a deal on Ozzie Albies. Albies clocks in at +260 to go yard at Pinnacle but is +560 on FanDuel, beating the +409 true odds by a considerable margin.
While the projections and stats aren’t quite as friendly to Albies, there are still some numbers to support backing Albies to go yard. For one, he is up to two actual and 1.8 expected home runs this year; for another, two of his batted balls would’ve cleared the fences of pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park, where this game is scheduled to be played.
Unfortunately, the MLB weather report calls for a 71% chance of precipitation in Seattle today, which, while a normal afternoon in the Pacific Northwest, could interfere. T-Mobile Park has a park factor of 104 for home runs with the roof open, but that number falls to 83 when the roof is closed.
But even though I have my concerns about this bet, the price is too good not to bet. Baseball is a 162-game sport — even if we don’t win every home run pick (or even 50% of them!), we can still turn a substantial profit over the long term. If you’re skeptical of our results, just check out our user testimonials and backtested simulations.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Ozzie Albies To Hit a Home Run +560 at FanDuel
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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