I was off Sunday, but Saturday’s article turned a profit, cashing an over for Ronald Acuna Jr. and an under for Trevor Rogers. We didn’t get a dong from Acuna or Austin Wells, but profit is profit. Let’s actually find a slugger who can go yard on today’s slate as we dive into my recommended MLB player prop picks for Monday’s slate — we’re getting exposure to one player prop bet, one home run pick and one bet from our MLB betting model. If you’re hungry for more, check out our MLB betting tools or our other MLB articles! Also, check out our guide about how to bet on MLB player props.
MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today: Monday, April 8
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Ronald Acuna Jr.
If you read this story on Saturday, it might feel like Groundhog Day. We were on Ronald Acuna Jr. to tally multiple bases then, and while he did deliver for us with two singles, we didn’t get the first home run of the season we were hoping for. Acuna now takes on the New York Mets and RHP Julio Teheran today.
Teheran, a longtime member of the Atlanta Braves, hasn’t pitched much in the majors over the last few years. When we saw him last season, he recorded a 4.93 xERA (22nd percentile) while allowing opposing batters to record a .272 xBA. His fastball velocity had fallen to 89.8 mph.
Teheran has adjusted for his age and lack of velo by throwing more sinkers (38.7%) and cutters (28.7%). Unfortunately for Teheran, Acuna can hit those pitches with ease. The superstar slugger recorded a .629 xSLG versus sinkers and a .646 xSLG versus cutters last year. Acuna has an absurd 85.7% hard-hit rate versus sinkers this year but for only a .346 xSLG.
While Acuna has been cold this year, his maximum exit velocity (111.5 mph) remains in the 90th percentile despite his xSLG (.245) crashing into the 10th percentile. But Acuna should bounce back by improving his launch angle, which, like his xSLG, is currently at an all-time low.
Acuna mashed 39 xHR just one season ago, and there’s no time like the present for him to return to his dominant ways. I bought Acuna to record multiple bases (-140 at Fanatics) and to go yard (+425 at Fanatics). His home run odds are just getting too long, and he should be able to exploit an aging pitcher with limited velocity in this spot.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases -140 at Fanatics & Home Run +425 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Ronald Acuna home run live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Blake Snell
I may be high on Acuna for projection-based reasons today, but our MLB betting model is low on LHP Blake Snell for market-based based reasons today. I use our model to build out a big prop card because the more +EV bets you place per day, the more protected you are from variance. This bet for Snell stands out as a sharp play even for projection-based reasons — despite his 31.5% strikeout rate (94th percentile) last season, it’s his first MLB start after a weird offseason, and he takes on a Nationals team that ranks 11th in strikeouts taken per game this year (8) after rankings second last year (7.1). But again, I’m on this play for market-based reasons.
Are you curious about how the market-based model works? Check out our guide! Briefly, our tools take in all the odds from across the market; adjust for factors like book sharpness and hold; and produce a breakeven price (called “true odds”) for each wager. That helps us identify off-market lines that offer positive expective value (+EV). For the rest of our tools’ picks, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium — our products are already much less expensive than our competitors, as we charge $14.95 per week and $49.95 per month versus their $150-plus per month — and you can use my code (“ISIROIS”) to take 20% off when you first sign up.
Today, our MLB betting model recommends going with Snell’s under on the strikeout market today due to an odds disparity: the under 6.5 strikeouts will cost you only -112 at FanDuel despite Pinnacle, a sharp book, pricing it at -151. We’re scoring a ton of edge relative to the market here: the true odds for this bet are -129!
Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll just as they transformed mine! From the start of the NBA season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Blake Snell Under 6.5 Total Strikeouts -112 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Blake Snell total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Trea Turner
This MLB home run pick stands out for both projection- and market-based reasons. Shortstop Trea Turner, like Acuna, is still looking for his first home run of the year, but today’s matchup versus an aging veteran pitcher (RHP Miles Mikolas) is a great spot for him to go yard.
But just because Turner hasn’t hit an actual home run this year doesn’t mean he lacks expected home runs. Turner has currently mashed 0.6 xHR on two batted balls, both of which resulted in field outs. Turner mashed 29 actual and 27.4 expected home runs last season.
As with the above pick for Blake Snell, this wager stands out as a +EV bet due to the wide market disparity between the +400 at FanDuel and what you’ll find at other books. Pinnacle lists this one for +331. DraftKings, Caesars, BetMGM and Hard Rock are all closer to +300 than they are +400.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Trea Turner +400 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Trea Turner home run live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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