The MLB has a boatload of action in store for us this evening, including a few games on national television via FS1 and ESPN+. The last time I penned this column, we cashed tickets for Jose Soriano and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Tonight, I’m getting action on some MLB player props, including two home run picks and one bet from our MLB betting model. If you haven’t tried out the +EV betting tools I’ve been using to pay my rent for the last few months, you can get them for 50% off — keep scrolling to see the exclusive coupon code!
Looking for more sports betting picks and analysis? Check out our MLB betting tools, including our MLB weather report, or our other MLB articles! Also, our guides about +EV MLB betting, MLB player prop strategy and home run betting strategy may be of assistance.
MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today: Monday, May 6
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Francisco Lindor
The New York Mets will visit the St. Louis Cardinals this evening, and the Cardinals plan to start innings-eager RHP Kyle Gibson. The veteran has been passable this year with a 3.79 ERA, but his 5.58 xERA and .272 xBA allowed suggest the wheels will fall off at some point. That could easily be tonight.
We’re backing Francisco Lindor against Gibson this evening. The two are quite familiar with each other — across 54 at-bats, Lindor has 19 hits and a .352/.417/.407 slash line. Only three of those hits went for extra bases, but the consistent contact is encouraging.
Lindor may no longer be an elite batsman, but he remains a very solid one. This year’s slash line of just .207/.280/.393 isn’t great, but his .268 xBA (72nd percentile) and .452 xSLG (74th percentile) are both well above average. Lindor has also been heating up over the last 15 days, through which he has slashed .250/.291/.558.
Lindor’s solid resume against Gibson is part of the reason to back him tonight, but it’s not the only reason. It’s likely that his stats have been suppressed by playing in pitcher-friendly Citi Field — Lindor’s road slash line of .246/.286/.523 points to considerably more value than his home slash line of .171/.275/.271. Look for the veteran shortstop to stay hot on the road tonight.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 Total Bases +120 at bet365
For the best price currently available, check out our Francisco Lindor total bases live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Sean Manaea
Let’s stick with tonight’s Mets-Cardinals game for this player prop pick from our MLB betting model. The Mets are expected to start LHP Sean Manaea, whose 3.07 ERA is a big step up from the 4.44 he recorded last year. Still, his 4.77 xERA (25th percentile) is a cause for concern. The model recommends fading him on the strikeout markets due to the off-market number posted at Hard Rock, which is trading with oodles of positive expected value (+EV):
You won’t find a price better than the -105 at Hard Rock. Most other public books have this one priced somewhere between -115 and -125. Pinnacle, a sharp book, is charging -143 for it, and model estimates the true odds of this wager (read: the breakeven price point) to be -121.
Our model reaches that conclusion by comparing all the odds across the market and weighing them for book sharpness. With Pinnacle’s sharp odds and low hold, they stand to lose more for posting an inefficient line, so we’re getting great value by playing the -105 at Hard Rock. Even the -110 at Fanatics has +EV!
Over a large sample, bets like this one will transform your bankroll. Not every bet will win, but we have the results and back-tested simulations to show our model is worth it. For the rest of our tools’ picks, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Make sure to use promo code “POSITIVE” to get your first week or month for 50% off (the regular prices are $14.95 and $49.95)!
MLB Betting Model Pick: Sean Manaea Under 4.5 Total Strikeouts -105 at Hard Rock
For the best price currently available, check out our Sean Manaea total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Adolis Garcia
The Texas Rangers will visit the Oakland Athletics tonight, and even through the Coliseum is a pitcher-friendly park, our tools recommend getting action on Adolis Garcia to go yard because of the incredibly friendly price we can find at FanDuel. While most public books have Garcia at odds of between +350 and +300, you can buy him at generous odds of +470 on FanDuel.
The park may not be friendly for batters, but the pitching matchup is, which is a key part of my home run betting strategy. Garcia will take on LHP Alex Wood, who has coughed up five actual and 4.2 expected home runs this season, including four batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences at the Coliseum.
Wood’s statistical profile is brutal: his 6.10 xERA (7th percentile), 92.1 mph average exit velocity allowed (3rd percentile) and 48% hard-hit rate allowed (8th percentile) all suggest the 33-year-old veteran pitcher is on his way out of the Show. Let’s trust Garcia to get the job done and go yard tonight at a price with a ton of +EV.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Adolis Garcia to Hit a Home Run +470 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Adolis Garcia home runs live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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