Yesterday’s column cashed tickets for both RHP Dane Dunning and LHH Bryce Harper, which was more than enough to turn a profit despite losing our bet for LHH Yordan Alvarez. We even got a few extra winners on our Discord. I’m hoping to keep the momentum rolling tonight. We’re getting exposure to one player prop bet, one home run pick and one bet from our MLB betting model. If you’re hungry for more, check out our MLB betting tools or our other MLB articles! Also, check out our guides about how to bet on MLB player props and home run betting strategy.
MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today: Saturday, April 13
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Yordan Alvarez
We lost our bet for LHH Yordan Alvarez yesterday, but we’re running it back today. He was hit by two pitches across five plate appearances and hit three fly balls. It marked his second straight hitless game. I expect him to bounce back tonight versus LHP Andrew Heaney.
Heaney is off to a rocky start this year. He owns a 7.56 xERA, which, in his defense, is probably inflated by variance. His 3.48 xERA (64th percentile) is much more solid, and it marks an improvement from the 4.55 xERA (35th percentile) he recorded last season.
Heaney has struggled against Alvarez and LHHs like him. Alvarez sports an impressive .412/.545/.647 slash line against Heaney with two extra-base hits and a home run across 17 at-bats. With 16 mph winds blowing straight out through center field, he’s in for a trickier task today.
Unlike Heaney, Alvarez is off to a great start this season. He owns a .367 xBA (99th percentile) along with a .808 xSLG (100th percentile), a slight uptick from the .300 xBA (97th percentile) and .626 xSLG (99th percentile) he recorded last year.
Alvarez has mashed 4 actual and 4.4 expected home runs this season, including a no-doubter against Heaney last week. I’m getting action on him to tally multiple bases and go yard today.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases +110 at DraftKings & Home Run +330 at Fanatics
For the best price currently available, check out our Yordan Alvarez total bases live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Garrett Crochet
We picked a winner from our MLB betting model yesterday with a bet on RHP Dane Dunning. Let’s make it two in a row with this pick for LHP Garrett Crochet. I rely on our market-based betting model to build a sizeable prop card each day because the more +EV bets you place, the better protected your bankroll is from variance. I bought got the under 7.5 before the line moved, but it makes a ton of sense to fade Crochet after his unsustainably hot start to the year. His 31.3% strikeout rate (86th percentile)
Are you wondering how the MLB betting model works? I’ve got you — just read our guide to using +EV tools! In short, they index all the odds from across the market; adjust for factors like hold and book sharpness; and use that data to produce a breakeven price (called “true odds”) for each wager. That number lets us identify off-market lines that give us positive expective value (+EV). For the rest of our tools’ picks, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium — you can use promo code “ISIROIS” to get your first week for 20% off ($11.96)!
Today, the MLB betting model recommends getting some action on Crochet’s under on the strikeout market due to a major odds disparity: the under 6.5 will cost you only +120 at Fanatics and Hard Rock despite Pinnacle, a sharp book, pricing it at -115. We’re getting a boatload of edge relative to the market with this one because the true odds for it clock in at +102!
Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll just as they transformed mine! From the start of the NBA season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Garrett Crochet Under 6.5 Total Strikeouts +120 at Fanatics
For the best price currently available, check out our Garrett Crochet total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Adolis Garcia
Let’s get action on RHH Adolis Garcia against RHP Ronel Blanco. Blanco is off to a crazy hot start to the year, sporting a 0.00 ERA and a 1.31 xERA (98th percentile). That’s massively improved from the 5.13 xERA he recorded last year, which suggests his hot start to the year is unsustainable.
Garcia is slashing .315/.377/.593 this year with a .310/.362/.643 slash line and four home runs against RHPs like Blanco. Garcia has mashed only 2.9 xHR this season, but his 93.2 mph average exit velocity (91st percentile) and 53.8% hard-hir rate (91st percentile) suggest more dingers are in his future.
We’re betting on this line due to the massive odds disparity between FanDuel’s +290 and Pinnacle’s +208. Every other sports book is hanging a line of +235 or worse, so we’re getting a great deal on this one. I’m also betting on Garcia to record multiple bases at odds of +110 at FanDuel.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Adolis Garcia Over 1.5 Total Bases +110 at FanDuel & Home Run +290 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Adolis Garcia home run live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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