Let’s go — yesterday’s card saw us cash total bases props for Francisco Lindor, Julio Rodriguez and Marcell Ozuna (Ozuna was on Discord!). We lost bets for Jung Hoo Lee and Alex Verdugo, but hey — that’s a profit. Today, I have action on a few MLB player props, including one home run pick and one bet from our MLB betting model. If you haven’t tried out the +EV betting tools I’ve been using to pay my rent for the last few months, you can get them for 50% off — scroll down to find out how!
Looking for more sports betting picks and analysis? Check out our MLB betting tools, including our MLB weather report, or our other MLB articles! Also, our guides about +EV MLB betting, MLB player prop strategy and home run betting strategy may be of assistance.
MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today: Saturday, April 27
MLB Player Prop Bet & Home Run Pick Today: Richie Palacios
We’ve got a boatload of solid pitchers on the mound today, but fortunately, the Chicago White Sox are playing baseball tonight. They’ll face the struggling Tampa Bay Rays, but with RHP Jonathan Cannon on the mound for Chicago, we’re jumping on a Tampa Bay lefty. Cannon sports a brutal 6.27 xERA and has allowed a .322 xBA. Lefties are slashing .429/.455/.619 against him.
The Rays don’t have many lefty bats at their disposal. They’ve got Richie Palacios and Auston Shenton as true lefties and Niko Goodrum as a switch-hitter. Palacios isn’t an everyday starter, but his numbers are the most convincing of the bunch.
Although he is certainly a platoon candidate, Palacios’ slash line of .264/.381/.415 versus righties is encouraging. He has mashed four extra-base hits and two home runs over that 63 plate appearance.
The expected stats point to some value here, too. Palacios’ xBA (.266) and xSLG (.405) are both beating his actual numbers in those metrics. When looking at just his performance against sinkers, Cannon’s go-to pitch, Palacios’ xBA (.364) and xSLG (.727) stand out even more.
Again, while Palacios could get platooned after Cannon exits, if he sticks around, he’ll get the ninth-worst bullpen by ERA (4.47), the worst bullpen by WHIP (1.54) and the third-worst bullpen by home runs allowed (16). I’m backing Palacios to tally multiple bases (+125 at Fanatics) and hit a home run (+600 at Fanatics).
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Richie Palacios Over 1.5 Total Bases +125 & Home Run +600 at Fanatics
For the best price currently available, check out our Richie Palacios total bases live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Tyler Glasnow
Buy low, sell high. RHP Tyler Glasnow struck out 10 batters in his last start and is averaging nine per start in April. While his strikeout rate of 30.6% is impressive (86th percentile) and sustainable (he recorded a 33.4% last year), we’re getting too good of a deal on the under to pass up today. It helps that Toronto Blue Jays rank third in strikeouts per game this year (6.96), but our MLB betting model wants his strikeouts under because we’re beating the market. The odds we’re getting at FanDuel has a ton of positive expected value (+EV) at Fanatics:
With our model, you can quickly find outlier odds and bets with +EV. This Glasnow under stands out because it’ll cost you only -111 at FanDuel despite costing -120 or worse at just about every other public book. More importantly, Pinnacle, a sharp book, is charging a whopping -146 for this wager.
So how does the model work? I’ll give you the cliff notes, so read our guide to using +EV betting tools if you have more questions. Our tools work by indexing the odds from across the market; adjusting those odds for book sharpness, hold and other factors; and calculating the true odds (a breakeven price point) for each bet.
Over a large sample, bets like this one will transform your bankroll. Not every bet will win, but we have the results and backtested simulations to our model is worth it. For the rest of our tools’ picks, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Make sure to use promo code “POSITIVE” to get your first week or month for 50% off (the regular prices are $14.95 and $49.95)!
MLB Betting Model Pick: Tyler Glasnow Under 7.5 Strikeouts -111 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Tyler Glasnow strikeouts live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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