Well, the momentum we got from our very profitable Thursday evaporated on Friday, as while we were right to back Boston’s bats, our chosen option (Rafael Devers) failed to go yard — or even record a hit. At least our home run pick was scratched, saving me from the embarrassment of a 0-3 reverse sweep. Let’s bounce back on today’s slate as we dive into my recommended MLB player prop picks for Saturday’s card — we’re getting exposure to one player prop bet, one home run pick and one bet from our MLB betting model. If you’re hungry for more, check out our MLB betting tools or our other MLB articles! I even have a few extra picks on my Twitter today. Also, check out our guide about how to bet on MLB player props.
MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today: Saturday, April 6
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Ronald Acuna Jr.
RHH Ronald Acuna Jr. has yet to hit his first home run of the season. That should change today against RHP Brandon Pfaadt. Pfaadt isn’t a bad pitcher, but he certainly isn’t good. Last year, he recorded a 4.48 xERA (37th percentile) to go with 25 actual and 24.6 expected home runs allowed — across only 96 innings pitched, might I add.
Righty batters like Acuna caused some problems for Pfaadt last year. In the regular season, he coughed up 11 home runs and a slash line of .291/.324/.533 to them. In the postseason, he coughed up dingers to RHHs Alec Bohm and Tyrone Taylor.
Acuna beat up RHPs for 33 home runs and a .343/.419/.605 slash line last season. He also recorded a .357 xBA (100th percentile), .660 xSLG (100th percentile) and a 55.2% hard-hit rate (98th percentile). His 39 xHR in the regular and postseason ranked second on the team.
But Acuna has yet to go yard this season, and he has yet to even hit a batted ball that would’ve cleared the fences anywhere. He is still slashing an encouraging .313/.421/.438 versus RHHs, though, and something has to give at some point.
I’m backing Acuna to tally multiple bases (-135 at ESPNBet) and to go yard (+320 at FanDuel). Those aren’t life-changing odds, but Acuna is too good to stay without a dinger for much longer, and this is a great matchup for him to hit one.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases -135 at ESPNBet & Home Run +320 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Ronald Acuna home run live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Trevor Rogers
As pumped as I am about backing Ronald Acuna Jr. today, I used our MLB betting model to build out the rest of my betting card today. The more +EV bets you place per day, the safer you are from variance, after all. This bet for LHP Trevor Rogers stands out as a sharp play. Rogers didn’t pitch enough to qualify for Statcast’s rankings last year, but his 24.1% strikeout rate would’ve been barely above average, and it’s down to 23.1% so far this year. He should benefit from taking on a Cardinals lineup that ranks 26th in strikeouts taken per game (10.4) — unless they can get back to what they did last year, when they ranked eighth (8.2).
If you’re wondering how the model works, check out our guide to it! Briefly, our tools index all odds from across the sports betting market; adjust for factors like hold and book sharpness; and produce a breakeven price (called “true odds”) for each bet. That lets us easily find off-market lines that offer positive expective value (+EV). For the rest of our tools’ picks, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium — our products are already much less expensive than our competitors, as we charge $14.95 per week and $49.95 per month versus their $150-plus per month — and you can use my code (“ISIROIS”) to take 20% off when you first sign up.
Today, our MLB betting model recommends going with Rogers’ under on the strikeout market today due to a market disparity: the under 5.5 strikeouts will cost you only +120 at Fanatics despite Pinnacle, a sharp book, pricing it at -111. We’re scoring a lot of edge relative to the market here: the true odds for this bet are +104!
Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll just as they transformed mine! From the start of the NBA season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Trevor Rogers Under 5.5 Total Strikeouts +120 at Fanatics
For the best price currently available, check out our Trevor Rogers total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Austin Wells
Despite yesterday’s home run pick voiding, we’re still up a bunch on home run bets this year due to our MLB betting model. Take a look at my Pikkit (@ISIROIS) and you’ll see recent winning splits for Blaze Alexander (+1100), Ketel Marte (+430) and Joey Gallo (+370) — all players I wouldn’t have bet on if not for our tools.
Several home run bets stand out today, but I picked one for the later games — we’re going with New York’s Austin Wells to go yards for odds of +870 at FanDuel. The wide market disparity makes this one a +EV bet.
I chose this Wells bet to demonstrate how much you can beat the market with home run picks at the moment. Pinnacle is taking action on this one at only +609, but we can buy the +870 at FanDuel — that’s a difference of almost 4% in implied probability!
Wells mashed four actual and 4.1 expected home runs in a limited sample last year. He is yet to hit a batted ball that would’ve cleared the fences anywhere, but today’s matchup with RHP Kevin Gausman, who coughed up 24.9 xHR last year, could be a good one.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Austin Wells +870 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Austin Wells home run live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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