It’s day three for most teams in this young MLB season which means plenty of action to target. We’ve hit the ground running so far and look to continue finding value early in the baseball season. Here are our top plays for Saturday, March 30th — we’re getting exposure to one player prop bet, one home run pick and one bet from our MLB betting model.
If you’re hungry for more, check out our MLB betting tools or our other MLB articles! Also, check out our guide to MLB player prop betting.
MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today: Saturday, March 30
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Max Fried
Game two of the opening series between the Braves and Phillies in Philadelphia. Atlanta blew open yesterday’s game in the later frames, a good representation of where the Phillies are to start the year. With playoff expectations above both teams’ shoulders, we should still expect at typical slow start in Philadelphia. That plays well into the hands of Max Fried who takes the hill today against the Phillies and Aaron Nola.
Fried was tough to hit last year and takes on a Phillies team that will need a month or so before the power kicks in. This is a prime spot for Fried to take advantage of a 5-6 inning start early in the year against a team struggling to manufacture runs.
Fried finished with a .316 xSLG rate and .257 xWOBA against opposing hitters. The Phillies aren’t going to manufacture much with small ball, so the first four weeks are feast or famine with power. We like him to limit the Phillies runs during his start, also knowing we don’t expect Fried to pitch deep into the game.
Fried gave up just 7 regular season bombs last year and isn’t a good candidate to be victimized early in this game. The best value for an expected return on the mound would be staying under 1.5 runs at plus money. We are right at market value with a +130 return on DraftKings.
The Phillies may have the Braves number but that’s reserved for the playoffs. With an expected slower start from the opposition, we find confidence in playing under 1.5 Runs by Max Fried.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Max Fried Under 1.5 Runs +130 at DraftKings
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: JP Sears
Let’s take a look at what our MLB betting model has in store for the top MLB player prop. We head to Oakland where JP Sears and the A’s continue their series against the Guardians. We see the betting model identify value in fading Sears, especially against this Guardians club.
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Saturday’s game is a tough one for Sears who won’t be able to rely on K power to force outs. Pitching to contact might be the only successful strategy for the A’s starter, which won’t bode well against Cleveland’s bats. We already see a lower K rate throughout their expected lineup, and Sears comes in with just a 21% K rate. It’s simply not strong enough to overcome the lack of Guardians strikeouts.
Sears has a decent BB rate but the more concerning factors are how well opposing batters are hitting. Sears ended last year with a .330 xWOBA off a .448 xSLG rate. Bottom line, if he’s not getting a rare K, Sears is struggling to pitch to contact.
The most recent game Sears pitched against the Guardians was last year, giving up a pair of runs on four hits. We expect that to be the ceiling for this year’s day two start. Especially with limited run support against Tanner Bibee for Cleveland.
We trust the process here, getting Sears Under 5.5 Ks at -128 on FanDuel, which beats the market price at -136 odds.
MLB Betting Model Pick: JP Sears Under 5.5 Strikeouts -128 at FanDuel
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Garrett Cooper
Once again we head to the MLB betting model on OddsShopper and find this fantastic price on Garrett Cooper to go yard. Copper saw just one AB in the Cubs loss Thursday in Texas, but is expected to start tonight against left Corey Bradford. The good news for Cooper and everyone else facing Bradford is the latter is prone to giving up some blasts. Bradford enters the year off a season that saw him struggle with contact, with a 43.5 hard hit % and an even worse 90.9 exit velocity.
We will see where Cooper is hitting tonight, but the 6’5 righty should do well with multiple at bats against Bradford. Cooper finished with just 17 homers in last year’s campaign, but faces a quality matchup tonight on the road. The betting model identified value that beats the market by betting this on FanDuel. The true odds from OddsShopper sit at +489 for Cooper to go long, but we get a +520 price on FanDuel.
By using this tool to beat the market price, we consistently stay ahead of both the market value and every other book. No other place is offering a price anywhere near +489, let alone what FanDuel is offering.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Garrett Cooper +520 on FanDuel
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