Yesterday’s MLB props column cashed tickets for Tyler O’Neill and Vinnie Pasquantino but lost one for Clarke Schmidt. That’s enough for us to have turned a tidy profit, and it helps that we also cashed a Christian Yelich ticket on Discord. This evening, I recommend getting some action on a few MLB player props, including two home run picks and two bets from our MLB betting model. Want to take our profitable MLB betting tools for a spin? You can get your first week or month for 50% off — keep reading to find out how!
Looking for more sports betting picks and analysis? Check out our MLB betting tools, including our MLB weather report, or our other MLB articles! Also, our guides about +EV MLB betting, MLB player prop strategy and home run betting strategy may be of assistance.
MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today: Saturday, May 11
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Jose Ramirez
The Cleveland Guardians will take on the Chicago White Sox tonight, and the Sox intend to start RHP Mike Clevinger. The 33-year-old hurler owns a dismal 13.50 ERA and an even worse 14.32 xERA through one start. While that’s not a representative sample, it’s enough to get excited about fading him.
Let’s back Jose Ramirez to get the best of Clevinger and Chicago’s awful bullpen, which ranks second-worst in hits allowed (143). Ramirez, a switch-hitter, will bat lefty against Clevinger. Clevinger allowed lefties to slash .240/.307/.442 last year with 26 extra-base hits.
Ramirez is no slouch against RHPs, either. He is slashing .218/.256/.427 against them with 10 extra-base hits. Last year, he slashed a far more impressive .302/.382/.481 versus RHPs with 43 extra-base hits.
Beyond his handedness splits, Ramirez has put together a solid start to the season. He owns a .250 xBA (53rd percentile) and .409 xSLG (56th). Those are both meaningful downticks from the .299 xBA (96th) and .480 xSLG (81st) he recorded last year. I suspect he’ll find his swing sooner rather than later.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 Total Bases -105 at DraftKings & Home Run +400 at Fanatics
For the best price currently available, check out our Jose Ramirez total bases live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Mike Clevinger
I already discussed fading RHP Mike Clevinger by backing Jose Ramirez, but we can make some money by fading him more directly as well. Clevinger made it through just two innings and 12 at-bats in his first start of the year, coughing up six hits, issuing four walks and notching zero strikeouts.
The MLB betting model advises that you fade Clevinger today. His strikeout total (3.5) is low, but not low enough. Clevinger recorded a poor strikeout rate of 20% (27th percentile) last year, a minor uptick from the 18.8% (23rd percnetile) he recored in 2022. Our model recommends fading Clevinger not for any of those reasons but because we’re beating market and scoring positive expected value (+EV) at SuperBook, Fliff and FanDuel:
The odds for this bet are -104 at SuperBook, -110 at Fliff and -112 at FanDuel. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists this bet for odds of -147. While most public books are in the -110 to -115 range, Caesars, ESPNBET and Hard Rock all have this one between -123 and -135. We’re getting too much value to pass up on this one at the aforementioned three books.
The model sees the under 3.5 as a +EV bet because of that exact market disparity. Our tools work by indexing the odds from across the market; adjusting for book sharpness, hold and more; and estimating the true odds (or a “breakeven price”) for each bet. If we can get something for longer than its true odds, we’re getting it with +EV.
Over a large sample, bets like this one will transform your bankroll. Not every bet will win, but we have the results and back-tested simulations to show our model is worth it.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Mike Clevinger Under 3.5 Total Strikeouts -110 at Fliff
For the best price currently available, check out our Mike Clevinger total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Justin Turner
My home run betting strategy is simple, and it begins by looking at the market. There’s no such thing as a good bet without a good number. In this case, we’re getting a shockingly good number for Turner with this off-market number at FanDuel. The next-best price is the +425 at Fanatics. We’re beating Pinnacle (+413), Caesars (+390) and every other public book.
I also like this bet for projections-based reasons. Justin Turner will take on the Minnesota Twins and RHP Simeon Woods Richardson, who has been great this year, allowing only 0.5 expected home runs. Still, SWR has been overperforming — his 1.74 ERA is way worse than his 3.70 xERA.
Turner has put together a solid resume so far this season. He has four actual and 3.2 expected home runs. Turner has mashed four batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences at Rogers Centre. Even if SWR can keep up his hot start, Turner will get the bullpen that ranks 13th-worst in home runs allowed (15).
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Justin Turner +560 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Justin Turner home runs live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2024 MLB predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this MLB season — make sure to check out the rest of our MLB articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
