After a very forgettable performance on Wednesday, let’s dive right into our picks for today. It’s a short MLB slate, so we’ll have to feature some early-game action prominently. We’re getting exposure to one player prop bet, one home run pick and one bet from our MLB betting model. If you’re hungry for more, check out our MLB betting tools or our other MLB articles! Also, check out our guides about how to bet on MLB player props and home run betting strategy.
MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today: Thursday, April 11
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Bryan Reynolds
The Pittsburgh Pirates and Philadelphia Phillies will do battle in a cross-state contest this evening. With most of today’s action scheduled to get underway in the early afternoon, this game is one of our few late-slate options — if we have a game at all, as there is rain in the forecast today in Philly.
But if we do have a game in Philadelphia today, SH Bryan Reynolds stands out as a sharp betting option against LHP Ranger Suarez. Reynolds has been destroying LHPs to the tune of a .412/.524/.824 slash line this season, which, while unsustainable, makes him an intriguing pick.
Suarez struggles against opposite-handed batters. He coughed up a .278/.351/.424 slash line to them last year with 33 extra-base hits and 12 home runs. Suarez is also no stranger to Reynolds, but the veteran slugger has only two hits across eight at-bats, good for a middling .250/.250/.250 slash line.
I’m backing Reynolds to have a better day against Suarez today, but again, I strongly suspect this one will get rained out. Still, it’s worth getting some action on Pittsburgh’s veteran batsmen in hopes of them getting this one in.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 Total Bases +125 at bet365 & Home Run +575 at BetMGM
For the best price currently available, check out our Bryan Reynolds total hits live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Jon Gray
It’s been tough sledding with our MLB betting model’s picks lately, but I have a good feeling about this under for RHP Jon Gray, and while his game is scheduled for an early start (2:30 p.m. ET), at least we’ll get to watch him play today without having to worry about rain. I use our market-based betting model to build a robust prop card each day because the more +EV bets you place, the better insulated you are from variance. I agree with this pick for projection-based reasons: Gray sports a brutal 12.5% strikeout rate (10th percentile) this year through two starts.
If you want to know more about how the model works, check out our guide to using +EV tools! In short, they index all the odds from across the market; adjust for factors like hold and book sharpness; and use that information to produce a breakeven price (called “true odds”) for each wager. That number lets us identify off-market lines that offer positive expective value (+EV). For the rest of our tools’ picks, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium — you can use promo code “ISIROIS” to get your first week for 20% off ($11.96)!
On Thursday, the MLB betting model advises betting on Gray’s under on the strikeout market because of an odds disparity: the under 6.5 will cost you only -122 at SuperBook (and -129 at Caesars) despite Pinnacle, a sharp book, pricing it at -179. We’re scoring a boatload of edge relative to the market with this one as the true odds for it clock in at -145!
Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll just as they transformed mine! From the start of the NBA season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Jon Gray Under 6.5 Total Strikeouts -129 at Caesars
For the best price currently available, check out our Jon Gray total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Adolis Garcia
One of the home run lines popping as a +EV bet today is the +260 at FanDuel for RHH Adolis Garcia. Garcia has mashed four actual and 2.9 expected home runs this season. Four of his batted balls would have cleared the fences at Globe Life Field.
Garcia led the Rangers with 47 actual and 43.1 expected home runs last season with a whopping 48 batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences in his home stadium. Although he has yet to go yard against a southpaw like the starter he’ll face today, JP Sears, I’m not concerned.
Sears has struggled with the long ball a ton. Last year, he coughed up 34 actual and 37.5 expected home runs, including 40 batted balls that would’ve gone yard at Globe Life Field. When Garcia and Sears squared off last April, Garcia smashed a ball that would’ve counted as a dinger in 13 ballparks — just not the one they were playing in at the time.
But for all my projection-based reasoning, this one comes down to the edge we’re getting on the books. FanDuel is willing to only charge +260 for this one while Pinnacle, a sharp boo, is charging +214 — and every other public book is hanging a +220 or worse. Bets like this one may not hit every night, but they’re profitable over the long run, and that’s the key to sharp MLB home run betting.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Adolis Garcia Over 1.5 Total Bases +100 at Fanatics & Home Run +260 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Adolis Garcia home run live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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