After a profitable Tuesday, yesterday’s article kept the streak alive, cashing tickets for RHP Luis Severino and Marcell Ozuna but losing a Christopher Morel bet, which stinks even more because I was choosing between him and Cody Bellinger, who had a great game. Today, I’m getting exposure to a few MLB player prop bets, including one home run pick and one bet from our MLB betting model — which you can now get for just $1, keep reading to find out how!
Looking for more sports betting picks and analysis? Check out our MLB betting tools or our other MLB articles! Also, our guides about +EV MLB betting, MLB player prop strategy and home run betting strategy may be of assistance.
MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today: Thursday, April 18
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Cody Bellinger
Let me begin today’s writeup with a disclaimer: the Chicago Cubs and Miami Marlins are supposed to play tonight, but with rain in the forecast until late in the evening, it’s likely that this one gets delayed. But with only two games scheduled for a first pitch after 5 p.m. ET, I’m going to make a pick and then pivot to focusing on the slate’s other contest.
Is LHP A.J. Puk broken? The talented southpaw has already allowed more walks this year than he did all of last season despite facing 184 fewer batters. But he hardly ever walks same-handed batters, so I’m still looking into a total bases prop for Cody Bellinger.
Bellinger sports an unimpressive .200/.296/.371 slash line so far this season, but he is one season removed from slashing a ferocious .307/.356/.525, and I suspect he’ll bounce back soon. His .205 xBA and .378 xSLG provide some support to that suspicion.
His matchup against a southpaw is also favorable for our purposes. Bellinger slashed .337/.388/.596 versus LHPs last year and is slashing .278/.278/.556 against them this year. Much of his trouble this season has come against RHPs, who have held him to a dismal slash line of .173/.302/.308.
If the Cubs and Marlins can get this game in today, Bellinger should rack up two total bases versus a struggling Puk.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 Total Bases +165 at ESPNBet
For the best price currently available, check out our Cody Bellinger total bases live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Corbin Carroll
In the lone late-slate game (and also probably the lone MLB game we’ll get tonight), the Arizona Diamondbacks will visit the San Francisco Giants. Our MLB betting model’s top bet for this game is on Corbin Carroll, whose slash line of .225/.345/.296 marks a big downtick from last year’s .285/.362/.506, but we’re still getting him at friendly (and off-market) odds to stay under 1.5 total bases:
As you see, Carroll will cost you -140 to stay under 1.5 total bases at ESPNBet and -142 at Caesars. Those lines both clock in well below the price at Pinnacle, a sharp book set to 1.5 for -152.
The model takes in the odds from across the sports betting market and generates the true odds (or a breakeven price). When the number available on any book exceeds that number, we know we’re getting positive expected value (+EV).
Bets like this one, when wagered over a large sample, can transform your bankroll dramatically — just as they transformed mine! Not every bet will win, and it won’t happen overnight, but we have the results to prove it.
For the rest of our tools’ picks, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium — you can use promo code “PLAYOFFS” to get your first week for $1 (the regular price is $14.95)! If you have more questions about how it works, read our guide to using +EV tools.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Corbin Carroll Under 1.5 Total Bases -140 at ESPNBet
For the best price currently available, check out our Corbin Carroll total bases live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Miguel Sano
On such a short MLB slate, only two home run picks were trading with positive expected value (+EV), and both were in the early afternoon games between the Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Angels. The model advises getting some action on slugger Miguel Sano, who is slashing .270/.372/.324 this season after sitting out the entire 2023.
Sano hasn’t gone yard yet this year, but his average exit velocity (98.7 mph) and maximum exit velocity (114.9 mph) are both in the 98th percentile or higher. Sano has just one batted ball that would’ve cleared the fences at any stadium, but with a hard-hit rate of 63.6% (99th percentile, the dongs should be coming.
But even if Sano doesn’t go yard for the first time since 2022 today, getting this bet at this price should yield meaningful returns over the long term. You just have to get enough exposure to a wide sample of these bets to insulate yourself from variance.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Miguel Sano Home Run +430 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Miguel Sano home run live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2024 MLB predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this MLB season — make sure to check out the rest of our MLB articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
