Let’s go! Yesterday’s article cashed home run bets for Mike Trout and Adolis Garcia, and we also scored a win on Trout’s total bases. We lost our under for RHP Spencer Arrighetti, but winning two home run bets is more than enough to offset that loss. On a frontloaded MLB slate, I have action on a few MLB player props, including one home run pick and one bet from our MLB betting model. If you haven’t tried out our +EV betting tools, you can get them for 50% off — keep reading to find out how!
Looking for more sports betting picks and analysis? Check out our MLB betting tools, including our MLB weather report, or our other MLB articles! Also, our guides about +EV MLB betting, MLB player prop strategy and home run betting strategy may be of assistance.
MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today: Thursday, April 25
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Jake Cronenworth
The San Diego Padres will wrap up their series against the Colorado Rockies early this afternoon, and the MLB weather report calls for warm temperatures and winds blowing out through left center field. Cronenworth, a lefty, won’t benefit from the wind direction, but he’ll continue to benefit from the elevation.
The Rockies will trot out RHP Dakota Hudson today. Hudson’s 4.89 xERA and .273 xBA aren’t encouraging, but he has limited the long ball well to this point, coughing up only two actual and 1.8 expected home runs over four starts.
However, Hudson has now given up a home run in back-to-back appearances, and lefty batters like Cronenworth are slashing .243/.349/.459 against him with both dingers and two more extra-base hits.
Cronenworth is off to a strong start to the season, slashing .253/.339/.411 overall and .292/.381/.486 against RHPs. He has mashed seven extra-base hits and three actual home runs versus RHPs. He also sports a .527 xSLG (89th percentile)
The lefty slugger is still hunting for his first extra-base hit since April 12, but hitter-friendly Coors Field should help him. He owns a career slash line of 352/.415/.648 in Denver with an average of 2.4 total bases per game.
I’ve got money on Cronenworth to tally multiple bases (-105 at Fanatics) and hit a home run (+650 at BetMGM). Those prices are far too generous for a batter with this good a record at Coors Field.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Jake Cronenworth Over 1.5 Total Bases +120 at Fanatics & Home Run +650 at BetMGM
For the best price currently available, check out our Jake Cronenworth total bases live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Dakota Hudson
The aforementioned Rockies will start RHP Dakota Hudson today, and the right-handed hurler isn’t expected to punch out many batters. Despite averaging 5.1 innings per start, Hudson averages only three K’s per game. His 12.5% strikeout rate slots in only the fourth percentile. This evening, our MLB betting model wants action on a Hudson under, but instead of using his brutal statistics, it reaches that conclusion the bet because we’re beating the market. This Hudson under has a ton of positive expected value (+EV) at Hard Rock:
The model reveals a bet on Hudson to stay under 2.5 strikeouts will cost you only +115 at Hard Rock (and +110 at BetMGM). Several other public books have this closer to even, while Pinnacle, a sharp book, is charging a far less generous -122!
You may be curious about how our model works. You can find out some more by perusing our guide to using +EV betting tools, but I’ll give you the short version: It indexes the odds from across the market; adjusts those odds for book sharpness, hold and other factors; and identifies the true odds (a breakeven price) for each bet.
Bets like this one, when wagered over a sufficiently large sample, can transform your bankroll — just as they transformed mine! Not every bet will win, and it won’t happen overnight, but we have the results to prove it.
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MLB Betting Model Pick: Dakota Hudson Under 2.5 Strikeouts +110 at BetMGM
For the best price currently available, check out our Dakota Hudson total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Joey Gallo
Yesterday’s (and Tuesday’s) home run pick, Adolis Garcia, came through for us one night after failing to deliver. That should be a reminder to you that because baseball is a 162-game season, placing many home run bets with +EV over a wide sample is key to turning a profit — you won’t win every day, but you don’t have to! If you’re skeptical of our process, check out our simulations.
Today, the model advises backing Joey Gallo to go yard at odds of +480 at FanDuel. Gallo is trading at +400 or worse at every other public book and is even down to +320 on Caesars. Pinnacle has him priced at +379, and the model believes the true odds for this wager are about +445, so we’re getting some value here, but probably not as much as we’d like. Still, it’s worth getting some exposure to nonetheless.
Gallo is a classic future outcomes batter. While he has mashed only three actual and 2.7 expected home runs on the season, the Nats give him license to swing for the fences in just about every at-bat. I don’t advise getting any action on his total bases prop (he’s hitting just .134 this year with a .166 xBA), but this home run prop is just juicy enough to feature on the card.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Joey Gallo Home Run +480 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Joey Gallo home run live odds page!
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