We’re so back — the MLB will get fully underway this Thursday, with every team that hasn’t run into weather trouble (or, you know, already started the season overseas) playing its first game today. I’m excited, you’re excited, so let’s get some MLB picks down for Thursday’s action, namely one player prop bet, one home run pick and one bet from our MLB betting model. If you’re hungry for more, check out our MLB betting tools or our other MLB articles! Also, check out our guide to MLB player prop betting.
MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today: Thursday, March 28
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Carlos Correa
I’m high on the Kansas City Royals this season, especially when they have LHP Cole Ragans on the mound. Ragans recorded an impressive 3.33 xERA last season while holding hitters to a .212 xBA, both of which ranked in the 84th percentile or higher.
RHH Carlos Correa was solid versus LHP last year, slashing an impressive .248/.346/.782 over 136 plate appearances. However, he averaged only 0.38 total bases per plate appearance, meaning he’d need four to put him on pace for his total bases prop (1.5) today.
Correa will likely get three chances against Ragans and one or two against Kansas City’s bullpen, so it’s not of the question that he gets to two total bases, but it’s worth noting that he was ineffective both on the road (.212/.295/.357) and in Kansas City last year (.192/.250/.231).
Pinnacle, the sharp book that powers our MLB betting model, has Correa priced at -175 to stay under 1.5 total bases, but we can get this MLB player prop for a much more friendly price of -150 at Fanatics.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Carlos Correa Under 1.5 Total Bases -150 at Fanatics
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Josiah Gray
Let’s turn to what our MLB betting model wants action on. It indexes the odds across every sportsbook to find off-market prices for bets that we know have positive expective value (+EV). If you’re reading this article before 4 p.m. ET on Thursday, you’re in luck — you can cash in for 50% off our +EV betting tools with code “PLAYBALL” — they’re already much less expensive than our competitors’ prices at $14.95 per week and $49.95 per month. If you’re late to the party, no worries: my code (“ISIROIS”) will still get you 20% off.
Today, our MLB betting model recommends getting some action on this under for the Washington Nationals and their starting pitcher, RHP Josiah Gray. Gray’s strikeout line is set to 5.5 across the market, but the under will cost you only -120 at Fanatics compared to a stingy -196 at Pinnacle — and at least -135 at most other public sportsbooks.
Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll just as they transformed mine! From the start of the NBA season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
Gray wasn’t a great pitcher last season. His 5.03 xERA ranked in the 19th percentile, and his 20.5% K% ranked in the 31st. Further, Gray averaged only 4.77 strikeouts per game in 2023, well under where this total is trading. He recorded six or more strikeouts in only 11 of his 30 starts, including a six-strikeout performance versus the same Cincinnati Reds he’ll play today.
While the Reds were a strikeout-heavy team in 2023, ranking 26th in strikeouts per game (9.26), expectations are higher this year. The team took some strides down the stretch last year, improving from averaging a strikeout in 28% of plate appearances in August to only 22% by September and October.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Josiah Gray Under 5.5 Total Strikeouts -115 at PointsBet/-120 at Fanatics
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Christian Encarnacion-Strand
Sometimes I like to take a chalk play on the home run markets, and that’s exactly what we’re doing with budding superstar Christian Encarnacion-Strand. The youngster looked excellent in spring training, mashing five home runs while slashing .333/.382/.784.
Encarnacion-Strand was good last year, too. He didn’t see enough plate appearances to be ranked at Statcast, but he recorded a .476 xSLG with an average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and sweet-spot rate that all would’ve ranked in the top third of the MLB.
Importantly, Strand mashed 11.3 expected home runs, 12 of which would’ve cleared the fences at Great American Ball Park, and 12 of his 13 actual home runs came against pitchers like Gray. Great American ranks first in park factors for home runs to all batters, RHHs and LHHs.
The two have yet to meet, but I suspect Encarnacion-Strand will send a ball over his home stadium’s fence in their first meeting today. Play Encarnacion-Strand to get a home run (+340 at BetMGM) and record over 1.5 total bases (+130 at BetMGM) today. You’ll find him trading at worse prices for both bets elsewhere.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Christian Encarnacion-Strand +340 at BetMGM
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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