Thursdays are light in the MLB, and with only one game on tap for the evening slate (Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros), so we’re going to turn attention to that game for two picks. I’ve dug up two MLB player prop bets and one home run pick with help from our MLB betting model. If you haven’t tried out the +EV betting tools I’ve been using to pay my rent for the last few months, you can get them for 50% off — keep scrolling to see the exclusive coupon code!
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MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today: Thursday, May 2
MLB Player Prop Bet & Home Run Pick Today: Yordan Alvarez
The Cleveland Guardians will trot our LHP Logan Allen this evening. Allen is a solid young pitcher, but he isn’t great by any means. His 47.2 xERA (27th percentile) and .286 xBA (15th percentile) are both well below the league average. He has also coughed up the most actual (6) and expected (5.3) home runs of Cleveland’s pitchers. As a result, I’m targeting Yordan Alvarez to record multiple bases (-110 at FanDuel) and to go yard (+285 at FanDuel).
Yordan, also a lefty, has started the year in excellent form. He is slashing .254/.323/.458, down slightly from the .293/.407/.583 he slashed last year, but both his xBA (.311) and xSLG (.647) suggest he has gotten a bit unlucky. With the calendar turning over to May, I suspect he’ll start producing big hits at a higher rate.
The power has been there for Alvarez. He has the third-most actual (7) and expected (4.5) home runs in Houston’s lineup, with six batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences at Minute Maid Park. Do note that the expected numbers don’t count the two home runs Alvared mashed in Mexico City.
Those concerned about the lefty-on-lefty matchup shouldn’t be. Alvarez is slashing .341/.388/.591 versus LHPs with three home runs over a 49-plate appearance sample. He slashed .295/.385/.507 versus LHPs last season with six home runs over a 174-plate appearance sample.
The MLB weather report calls for 80-degree weather, 74% humidity and 12.5 mph winds blowing out through left-center field in Houston tonight. Alvarez should benefit from both the favorable conditions and the pitching matchup, so back him for a big game tonight.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases -110 at FanDuel & Home Run +285 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Yordan Alvarez total bases live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Spencer Arrighetti
For another pick from the evening’s Guardians-Astros game, our MLB betting model recommends backing RHP Spencer Arrighetti to stay under 4.5 total strikeouts. Arrighetti has cleared this number in two of his three starts thus far and sports a 25.9% strikeout rate (69th percentile) but now must take on a Guardians squad that ranks eighth in strikeouts taken per game (7.6). The odds odds at DraftKings leave a ton of positive expected value (+EV) on the board:
As you can see, the -130 at DraftKings (and BetRivers) leave a lot of value on the board. Most other public books are down to -140 or -150. ESPNBET is even down to -160. Importantly, Pinnacle, a sharp sportsbook, is at -169.
Our tools identify this under as a +EV bet because of that odds disparity. Our tools index the odds from across the market; adjust for hold, book sharpness, and more; then spit out the true odds (a breakeven price) for each bet. If you can get a wager for longer than its true odds, it’s +EV.
Over a large sample, bets like this one will transform your bankroll. Not every bet will win, but we have the results and back-tested simulations to show our model is worth it. For the rest of our tools’ picks, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Make sure to use promo code “POSITIVE” to get your first week or month for 50% off (the regular prices are $14.95 and $49.95)!
MLB Betting Model Pick: Spencer Arrighetti Under 4.5 Total Strikeouts -130 at DraftKings
For the best price currently available, check out our Spencer Arrighetti total strikeouts live odds page!
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