The MLB rolls on with a relatively short Thursday slate. We’ve got a handful of late games, for which I’ve got two picks, as well as some early-afternoon action in Cincinnati. Today, I recommend getting some action on a few MLB player props, including two home run picks and a bet from our MLB betting model. You can try out our model for a week for 50% off, keep reading to find out how!
Looking for more sports betting picks and analysis? Check out our MLB betting tools, including our MLB weather report, or our other MLB articles! Also, our guides about +EV MLB betting, MLB player prop strategy and home run betting strategy may be of assistance.
MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today: Thursday, May 9
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Nolan Arenado
The St. Louis Cardinals will take on the Milwaukee Brewers and RHP Tobias Myers. Myers is off to a shaky start to the year, coughing up a 6.23 ERA and 5.28 xERA. Opposing batsmen are slashing .240/.309/.560, but it’s the right-handed batsmen who are slashing .250/.323/.786 that stand out. Myers has coughed up five home runs to them this year.
Myers’ struggles against same-handed batters make Nolan Arenado stand out as a sharp target. He is slashing .287/.351/.390 on the season, so while the contact is there, the power hasn’t been. Arenado’s .266 xBA and .367 xSLG suggest he contact should be worse but the power should be better.
While it’s possible that Arenado will never bat at the levels he once did again, he slashed a moderately more powerful .266/.315/.459 last season with a .435 xSLG. His two actual and 2.3 expected home runs so far this season aren’t good, but he is one year removed from hitting 26 actual and 25.1 expected home runs.
The biggest issue for Arenado has been his inability to hit fastballs — his .644 xSLG against them has collapsed to .250. Something could be amiss, but I’m willing to trust Arenado against a guy who throws four-seamers 37.3% of the time with a .631 xSLG allowed.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 Total Bases +125 at bet365 & Home Run +450 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Nolan Arenado total bases live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Sonny Gray
Taking the bump for the Cardinals tonight is RHP Sonny Gray. It’s been a strong start to the season for Gray, who sports a 0.89 ERA and 0.86 WHIP across five starts. While those numbers are impressive, his 2.33 xERA (93rd percentile) suggests he’s gotten at least a bit lucky. His 33.3% strikeout rate (94th percentile) is also miles ahead of the 24.3% (56th percentile) he recorded last season.
The MLB betting model advises fading Gray against this Brewers lineup. Sure, they’re seventh-worst in strikeouts taken per game (9.1), but we’re beating the market by a healthy enough margin to score some positive expected value (+EV). The price FanDuel is charging is too good to pass up:
At every public book, the best price you’ll find is the -118 at FanDuel. Almost every other public book is taking action on this one between -125 and -140. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has this one priced at -160, and our model estimates a breakeven price to be -127.
The model finds the under 6.5 is a to be a +EV bet due to that market disparity. By indexing the odds from across the market and adjusting for hold and book sharpness, it estimates the true odds (that aforementioned breakeven price).
Then, by using an adjusted Kelly bankroll management system, it estimates we’re getting enough edge that a bettor with a $1,000 bankroll should wager $11 on this market. Over a large sample, bets like this one will transform your bankroll. Not every bet will win, but we have the results and back-tested simulations to show our model is worth it.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Sonny Gray Under 6.5 Total Strikeouts -118 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Sonny Gray total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Elly De La Cruz
When following my home run betting strategy, I look at the market first because there’s no such thing as a good bet without a good price. In this case, we’re getting a boatload of value at FanDuel that we’d never get anywhere else. We know this: the +335 at Fanatics is the next-best price on the board. Every other book has this one trading between +325 and +270.
This bet for Elly De La Cruz stands out for projection-based reasons, too. De La Cruz will take on RHP Slade Cecconi, whose .207/.258/.448 slash line and two home runs allowed to LHHs stand out, especially with De La Cruz slashing .266/.363/.608 and seven home runs versus RHPs. De La Cruz has eight actual and 5.9 expected home runs to his name this year.
It also helps that De La Cruz plays in the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. No stadium ranks better in park factors for home runs (126). It ranks third for home runs hit by RHHs (118), which, while slightly worse, isn’t that big of a deal since De La Cruz will get to bat righty if the D-backs bring in a lefty pitcher.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Elly De La Cruz +420 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Elly De La Cruz home runs live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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