Yesterday’s column picked a winner for RHH Trea Turner’s total bases, but we lost our over for LHH Shohei Ohtani (he only got one base) and RHP Luis Gil (he got exactly six strikeouts to lose by the hook). I’m frustrated, you’re frustrated, so let’s get right on today’s massive slate. Today, I recommend getting exposure to one player prop bet, one home run pick and one bet from our MLB betting model — which you now get for 50% off with an exclusive in-article promo code — keep reading to find it! If you’re hungry for more, check out our MLB betting tools or our other MLB articles! Also, check out our guides about how to bet on MLB player props and home run betting strategy.
MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today: Tuesday, April 16
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Bryce Harper
We trusted RHH Trea Turner against the Colorado Rockies yesterday, but we’ll turn to his teammate, LHH Bryce Harper, for today’s game against them. Harper draws a matchup against LHP Austin Gomber, who has had a pretty rough go of things early in the year. Gomber sports a brutal .290 xBA allowed and a 6.22 xERA to go with it.
Harper hasn’t started the year as well as I would’ve liked. His slash line of .197/.290/.393 raises some concerns about betting his overs, but I’m encouraged by his .252 xBA and .483 xSLG — his batted balls should’ve yielded better returns than they have.
The veteran slugger still has three home runs to his name this year, and all three would’ve cleared the fences at Citizens Bank Park. While only one of those home runs came against a southpaw like Gomber, his slash line of .226/.273/.419 against them is better than what he’s done against RHPs.
Harper was similarly effective against LHPs last year. He recorded a .289/.374/.510 slash line with 16 extra-base hits and eight home runs, and, importantly for our purposes, a 5% lower walk rate than against RHPs. He averaged two total bases per game versus southpaw starters and is averaging 1.5 this year.
I’m backing Harper to record multiple bases and to go yard today. Gomber has been a fade and Colorado’s bullpen ranks third-worst by bullpen ERA (5.61), so he should get plenty of chances to get hits on this Dinger Tuesday.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases +115 at DraftKings & Home Run +400 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Bryce Harper total bases live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Carlos Rodon
I love originating picks, but I do use our market-based betting model to build a more diverse portfolio of prop investments each day. The more bets with positive expective value (+EV) you place each day, the better insulated your bankroll is from variance. The model advised fading New York’s RHP Luis Gil yesterday and now advises fading their LHP Carlos Rodon. I agree for projection-based reasons: Rodon’s strikeout rate of 18.8% (33rd percentile) is low, and Toronto ranks seventh in strikeouts taken per game (7.6).
But let’s get back to those market-based reasons. Our MLB betting model indexes the odds from around the sports betting landscape; adjusts for factors like hold and book sharpness; and uses those data points to produce the bet’s true odds (a breakeven price). With that number, we can find off-market lines that give us +EV. For the rest of our tools’ picks, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium — you can use promo code “POSITIVE” to get 50% off your first week ($7.48) or month ($24.98)! If you have more questions about how it works, read our guide to using +EV tools.
Today, the MLB betting model recommends getting some exposure to Rodon’s under on the strikeout market due to a simple, clear market disparity: the under 4.5 runs for +122 at FanDuel despite Pinnacle, a sharp book, pricing the same wager at -105. We know that we’re getting a boatload of edge relative to the market in this spot because the true odds for this bet clock in at +106!
Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll just as they transformed mine! Not every bet will win, and it won’t happen overnight, but we have the results to prove it.
From the start of the NBA season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Carlos Rodon Under 4.5 Total Strikeouts +122 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Carlos Rodon total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Shea Langeliers
Let’s dive into the top home run pick today. The St. Louis Cardinals will start innings-eater Lance Lynn today, who stunk it up last year and allowed the most expected home runs of any pitcher, coughing up 45.4 in the regular season and playoffs.
Lynn hasn’t been an absolute pumpkin this year, but he hasn’t been good. He has coughed up 3.3 expected home runs and three batted balls that would’ve cleared the Oakland Coliseum’s fences. The matchup sets up well for RHH Shea Langeliers.
Oakland’s lineups seem somewhat anti-competitive, as I would put Langeliers in the heart of the order. The catcher is slashing .188/.273/.438 this season but sports a .238 xBA and a .560 xSLG (91st percentile) with four actual and a team-high 3.4 expected home runs.
Lynn fared better against RHHs than LHHs last year, but RHHs still put up a slash line of .231/.298/.421 against him with 20 home runs and 30 extra-base hits. I bought Langeliers to go yard as well as to record a hit (for only -135 at ESPNBet!)
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Shea Langeliers Home Run +560 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Shea Langeliers home run live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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