Let’s go — yesterday’s column easily cashed our top prop of the day for Bobby Witt Jr., and he even went yard for us! Our other picks didn’t fare as well, but cashing a +800 home run ticket is more than enough to turn a profit despite some other losing plays. Let’s dive into my recommended MLB player prop picks for Tuesday’s exciting card (it’s Dinger Tuesday at FanDuel, no less!) — we’re getting exposure to one player prop bet, one home run pick and one bet from our MLB betting model. If you’re hungry for more, check out our MLB betting tools or our other MLB articles! Also, check out our guide to MLB player prop betting.
MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today: Tuesday, April 2
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Manny Machado
So you’ve probably heard about FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday — if you haven’t, if you opt-in and place a $25 bet on someone to hit a home run, you’ll receive $5 in bonus bets for each home run hit in that game. We’ll have some specific Dinger Tuesday home run picks today, but this one isn’t a bad play for the promotion.
RHH Manny Machado will take on the St. Louis Cardinals today. Targeting him for Dinger Tuesday is a bit awkward because we’ve got neither wind blowing out in our favor nor a hitter-friendly park — but even a glance at the MLB weather report today reveals that several of our alternatives could get rained out.
Machado draws RHP Miles Mikolas, which is a great matchup for our purposes. Mikolas coughed up 28.7 xHR last season, 29 of which would’ve cleared the fences at Petco Park, including a fly-out hit by Machado that would’ve counted as a home run in 18 stadiums. Unfortunately, just not Petco Park.
But Mikolas’ struggles from last season seem to have continued into this year. Last year, he notched a 5.44 xERA and (11th percentile) and .291 xBA allowed (5th percentile); in his first start of the year, he notched a 10.38 ERA and allowed a .412 BA. Sure, it’s a one-game sample — and he was facing the Los Angeles Dodgers — but he remains a fade for us.
We’re getting Machado to go over 1.5 total bases for +110 at Fanatics as well as backing him to hit a home run for +425 at Fanatics (or +400 at FanDuel, if you want him on your Dinger Tuesday card). Mikolas struggled more against LHHs like Fernando Tatis Jr. than RHHs like Machado, but Tatis is trading at only -110 to tally multiple bases, and Machado is slashing a steady .261/.346/.478 versus RHPs to open the year. I recommend getting exposure to them both today.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Manny Machado Over 1.5 Total Bases +110 at Fanatics & Home Run +425 at Fanatics
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Jose Berrios
My top MLB player props today are for the San Diego Padres, but instead of trying to make more of my own projections, I’m using our MLB betting model to help build the rest of my card. This pick for RHP Jose Berrios stands out as a sharp bet against the tough Houston Astros lineup. Berrios recorded only a 4.51 xERA (36th percentile) last year to go with a 23.5% strikeout rate (50th percentile). He now takes on a Houston team that ranks sixth in strikeouts per game (7).
The model works by indexing the odds across every sportsbook. Once it’s done that, it generates a breakeven price (called “true odds“) for each bet, helping us identify off-market lines with positive expective value (+EV). For more picks from our tools, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium — our products are already much less expensive than our competitors, as we charge $14.95 per week and $49.95 per month versus their $150-plus — and you can use my code (“ISIROIS”) to take 20% off.
Today, the MLB betting model suggests that we fade Toronto’s starter, RHP Jose Berrios, on the strikeout markets. The under 4.5 strikeouts will cost you only +130 at SuperBook or +125 at BetMGM despite Pinnacle, a sharp book, charging a whopping +104. We’re scoring a boatload of edge relative to the market here — the true odds for this bet are only +113.
Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll just as they transformed mine! From the start of the NBA season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Jose Berrios Under 4.5 Strikeouts +125 at BetMGM
MLB Home Run Pick Today for FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday: Ketel Marte
We’ll wrap things up with a home run pick from our model with an eye toward FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday. We’re backing SH Ketel Marte for this one — he is trading at odds of +500 to hit a home run at FanDuel, but you’ll find him trading below +400 at just about every other book including Pinnacle, where he is +344.
The massive odds disparity is causing this home run pick to render as a +EV bet today, but there are projections-based reasons to get excited about Marte tonight. For one, he’s an excellent batsman — Marte recorded a .266 xBA (70th percentile) last season with an average exit velocity of 91.1 mph (77th percentile).
Marte mashed 27 actual and 25 expected home runs last season, 25 of which would’ve cleared the fences at his home park, where he’ll play tonight’s game. It should be a warm night at Chase Field, so we also won’t have to worry about the weather in this one.
But perhaps most exciting is the pitching matchup. Marte draws LHP Nestor Cortes, whose average exit velocity allowed of 89.6 mph (34th percentile) and fastball velocity of 91.6 mph (16th percentile) make him vulnerable to the long ball.
Cortes coughed up 10.1 xHR in just 63.1 innings pitched last season, and 11 of those batted balls would’ve cleared the fences at Chase Field. He also coughed up a home run to Houston’s Jake Meyers in his first start of the year to go with a 7.20 ERA.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Ketel Marte +500 at FanDuel
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