Yesterday’s article cashed MLB player prop picks for Bryce Harper and Ryan O’Hearn, and while neither Harper nor Ozzie Albies went yard, we still made money thanks to the total bases markets. With it being FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday, we’ve just got to have action on a few MLB player props, including two home run picks and one bet from our MLB betting model. If you haven’t tried out the +EV betting tools I’ve been using to pay my rent for the last few months, you can get them for 50% off — keep scrolling to see the exclusive coupon code!
Looking for more sports betting picks and analysis? Check out our MLB betting tools, including our MLB weather report, or our other MLB articles! Also, our guides about +EV MLB betting, MLB player prop strategy and home run betting strategy may be of assistance.
MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today: Tuesday, April 30
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Aaron Judge
Sometimes, you’ve just got to keep things simple. That’s what we’re doing for FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday this evening, as we’re riding with superstar slugger Aaron Judge to go yard. He may be only +210 to hit a home run, but we’re getting a surprising amount of value on this one.
While +215 may sound steep, every other public book has this one priced at +180 or shorter. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists it for +174. That may not sound like a huge margin, but it’s 4.8 percentage points of value.
But there are plenty of projection-based reasons to like Judge today as well. He’ll take on RHP Dean Kremer, against whom he is slashing .400/.400/1.300 with three home runs.
Kremer has struggled with power all season. He ranks 11th in actual home runs allowed (6) but leads the MLB in expected home runs allowed (8.4), coughing up nine batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences in Baltimore.
While Judge was struggling at the plate earlier this season, he’s turned things around of late, slashing .333/.455/.704 with three home runs over the last week. His .244 xBA (44th percentile) is still shaky, but his .488 xSLG (88th percentile) has already rebounded substantially.
I bought Judge to tally multiple bases (-125 at Fanatics ) and go yard (+215 at FanDuel). With the MLB weather report calling for 10 mph winds straight out this evening and LHP Nestor Cortes (5 xHR) on the mound for New York, this game is my favorite target on the Dinger Tuesday slate.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases -125 at Fanatics & Home Run +215 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Aaron Judge total bases live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Landon Knack
The Los Angeles Dodgers will visit the Arizona Diamondbacks on the evening’s late slate, and our MLB betting model recommends fading the L.A. starter. It’s RHP Landon Knack taking the bump for the Blue Crew tonight, and neither his 4.23 xERA (39th percentile) nor his 20.5% strikeout rate (37th percentile) inspires a ton of confidence, especially not against an Arizona team that ranks fifth in strikeouts taken per game (7.4). We’re fading him on the strikeout market, and the odds at DraftKings have a ton of positive expected value (+EV):
As the model shows, the +125 at DraftKings is beating the market substantially. Most public books are at +120 or shorter. Pinnacle, a sharp book, is at +103; Caesars, a sharper public book, is at +102.
But how does the model reach this conclusion? That’s easy: our tools take in the odds from across the sports betting market; adjust those odds for hold, book sharpness and more; and use that information to estimate a breakeven price (called “true odds“) for each bet.
Over a large sample, bets like this one will transform your bankroll. Not every bet will win, but we have the results and back-tested simulations to show our model is worth it. For the rest of our tools’ picks, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium.
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MLB Betting Model Pick: Landon Knack Under 3.5 Total Strikeouts +125 at DraftKings
For the best price currently available, check out our Landon Knack total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Freddie Freeman
Woah there, FanDuel. Listing Freddie Freeman at odds of +540 to go yard — on Dinger Tuesday, of all days? Almost every other public book has this one at +400 or shorter, and Pinnacle is down to +333. We’re clearing the true odds (+459) by a wide margin to boot. Jump on this line before FanDuel corrects their off-market pricing.
Sure, Freeman has been underwhelming as a power hitter this season. He has just two home runs (on 2.2 expected home runs). Still, his .296 xBA (89th percentile) is elite, and his .458 xSLG (75th percentile) is still pretty good. He isn’t getting the barrels we’d like, but he is hitting the ball well: his 51.1% sweet-spot rate is in the 100th percentile.
It’s LHP Jordan Montgomery on the mound for the D-backs tonight. Montgomery has owned Freeman, allowing him just one hit in nine at-bats, and generally shuts down same-handed batsmen. But Freeman slashed .335/.399/.609 with 12 home runs against LHPs last year, and, in my opinion, it’s only a matter of time before he figures things out.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Freddie Freeman To Hit a Home Run +540 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Freddie Freeman total home runs live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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