After a great showing on Saturday, we missed our Ronald Acuna Jr. and Trea Turner picks (although the Discord still cashed in on Turner’s total bases — I almost always bet two-plus for anyone I take to go yard) but cashed a Blake Snell under. This Dinger Tuesday, we’re getting exposure to one player prop bet, one home run pick and one bet from our MLB betting model. If you’re hungry for more, check out our MLB betting tools or our other MLB articles! Also, check out our guide about how to bet on MLB player props.
MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today: Tuesday, April 9
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: MJ Melendez
For those who don’t know, I’m a big Kansas City Royals fan this year. No, not because I’m from Kansas City or anything — I just have them to win over 73.5 games… and the AL Central. Through 10 games, things look pretty good for them, as they’re sitting pretty at 6-4.
LHH MJ Melendez has been clutch for the Royals so far. He’s slashing a very nice .323/.382/.742 with seven extra-base hits and three home runs. This comes after he slashed .235/.316/.398 last year, so it’s fair to question whether the production is sustainable.
The Royals will host RHP Cristian Javier and the Houston Astros today. Javier has begun the year solidly, boasting a 0.00 ERA through 11 innings pitched. He has also yet to give up a batted ball that would’ve cleared the fences anywhere.
But last year was a very different story for Javier — he allowed 31.8 expected home runs, 28 of which would’ve cleared the fences in Kansas City. He also coughed up a slash line of .273/.345/.470 to LHH like Melendez.
While Javier struggled against LHHs last year, Melendez performed better against them. He slashed .239/.332/.420 versus RHPs last season, tallying 42 extra-base hits and 13 home runs to boot. This season, he is slashing .375/.444/.917 versus RHPs with all seven of his extra-base hits. I’m spreading three-quarters of a unit between Melendez to tally multiple bases and to go yard.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: MJ Melendez Over 1.5 Total Bases +150 at ESPNBet & Home Run +500 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our MJ Melendez home run live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Sonny Gray
Our MLB betting model helped us cash the LHP Blake Snell under yesterday, so here’s hoping it helps us cash this RHP Sonny Gray under today. Our market-based betting model helps me build out a big prop card, which is important — the more +EV bets you place per day, the more protected you are from variance. I happen to agree with it here for projection-based reasons: Gray’s strikeout rate last season (24.3%) was marginally above average, but the Cardinals could take things carefully with him in his return from injury
Wondering how the model works? Check out our guide! In short: our tools take in all the odds from across the market; adjust for factors like book sharpness and hold; and produce a breakeven price (called “true odds”) for each wager. That helps us identify off-market lines that offer positive expective value (+EV). For the rest of our tools’ picks, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium — and you can use promo code “MASTERS” to get your first week for $1.
Today, our MLB betting model recommends going with Gray’s under on the strikeout market due to an odds disparity: the under 4.5 will cost you only -134 at FanDuel despite Pinnacle, a sharp book, pricing it at -193. We’re scoring a whopping amount of edge relative to the market here: the true odds for this bet are -156! Take advantage of this misprice before it gets bid off the board.
Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll just as they transformed mine! From the start of the NBA season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Sonny Gray Under 4.5 Total Strikeouts -134 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Sonny Gray total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Yandy Diaz
Let’s wrap up today’s article with another pick from our model with which I agree strongly. The model helped us find RHH Trea Turner as a value option yesterday, and even though he didn’t go yard, we cashed a ticket for his total bases.
RHH Yandy Diaz and the Tampa Bay Rays will visit the Los Angeles Angels tonight. The Angels are expected to start LHP Patrick Sandoval, who is yet to cough up a dinger this season. While he only coughed up 12 last year, too, he surrendered 15.9 expected home runs.
Diaz is solid against LHPs and is familiar with Sandoval. Diaz slashed .355/.432/.669 against LHPs last season, mashing 39 extra-base hits and 12 home runs against them. He owns a career slash line of .273/.385/.364 against Sandoval with one extra-base hit.
Ultimately, I have action on Diaz to record multiple bases (+110 at BetMGM) and to go yard (+800 at FanDuel). We’re getting too much value on the home run market to pass up, as every other book has him at +575 or shorter to go yard.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Yandy Diaz +800 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Yandy Diaz home run live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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