Oof — yesterday’s article performed the rare reverse sweep, as we lost bets for MJ Melendez, Sonny Gray and Yandy Diaz. Those who tailed me on Pikkit (@ISIROIS) were a bit better insulated from variance, as we cashed some tickets for Adley Rutschman, Jung Hoo Lee and others, but it was a down day overall. I want to bounce back today, so we’re getting exposure to one player prop bet, one home run pick and one bet from our MLB betting model. If you’re hungry for more, check out our MLB betting tools or our other MLB articles! Also, check out our guides about how to bet on MLB player props and home run betting strategy.
MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today: Wednesday, April 10
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Tyler O’Neill
The Boston Red Sox will take on the Baltimore Orioles today in Fenway Park. The hottest hitter in baseball, RHH Tyler O’Neill, will take on LHP Cole Irvin. Although Irvin has started this season shakily, opposite-handed pitching has been a death sentence for O’Neill’s production this year — at least in terms of hits.
This spot is a classic sell-high opportunity. After slashing .231/.312/.403 last season, O’Neill is slashing .344/.488/.906 this year. His .290 xBA (76th percentile) suggests several of his batted balls that went for hits probably shouldn’t have.
Worse, O’Neill’s production has come almost exclusively versus RHPs. He is slashing .385/.467/1.077 against them but only .167/.546/.167 against LHPs with just one lonely hit. O’Neill slashed .227/.354/.439 against LHPs last season.
While O’Neill’s absurd walk rate versus LHPs (he has five in 11 plate appearances) should tick down — and his absurdly low batting average should tick up — the +190 at Fanatics for him not to get a hit today is too good of a deal to pass up.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Tyler O’Neill Under 0.5 Total Hits +190 at Fanatics
For the best price currently available, check out our Tyler O’Neill total hits live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Hunter Greene
The MLB betting model didn’t deliver with the RHP Sonny Gray under yesterday, but I suspect it will with this RHP Hunter Greene under. I use our market-based betting model to build a much more robust prop card each day, which is important to avoid variance: the more +EV bets you place, the better protected you are from it. I agree with this pick for projection-based reasons: Greene’s 28.3% strikeout rate last season, while efficient, was only in the 74th percentile. He tallied eight or more strikeouts in just 10 of his 22 starts and now must deal with a Milwaukee Brewers team that ranked a league-average 16th in strikeouts taken per game last year (8.7).
If you’re curious about how the model works, check out our guide to MLB player prop betting! Quickly, our tools index all the odds from across the market; adjust for factors like hold and book sharpness; and use that information to produce a breakeven price (called “true odds”) for each wager. That number lets us identify off-market lines that offer positive expective value (+EV). For the rest of our tools’ picks, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium — and you can use promo code “MASTERS” to get your first week for $1.
Today, our MLB betting model recommends going with Greene’s under on the strikeout market because of an odds disparity: the under 7.5 will cost you only -118 at FanDuel despite Pinnacle, a sharp book, pricing it at -151. We’re scoring a solid amount of edge relative to the market here: the true odds for this bet are -132! Buy this one before the value disappears.
Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll just as they transformed mine! From the start of the NBA season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Hunter Greene Under 7.5 Total Strikeouts -118 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Hunter Greene total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Trea Turner
Oh, boy! RHP Lance Lynn is on the mound today, which means it’s time to lock in several overs (and home run picks) for opposing batsmen. Lynn coughed up an MLB-high 45.4 expected home runs (and 48 actual home runs) last season. He has already surrendered 3.2 xHR in two starts this year.
Lynn struggles against both RHHs and LHHs. Last year, RHHs slashed .231/.298/.421 against him with 20 home runs, while LHHs slashed .289/.360/.551 with 24. While RHH Trea Turner doesn’t have the handedness advantage in this matchup, we’re getting too much value on him to go yard at FanDuel to pass up.
Turner will cost you only +420 at FanDuel to send one over the fence, but he is down to +298 at Pinnacle, and most public books have him shy of +333. Bets like this one may not hit every night, but they’re profitable over the long run, and that’s the key to sharp MLB home run betting.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Trea Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases -105 at DraftKings & Home Run +420 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Trea Turner home run live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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