MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today for Wednesday, April 17 (2024)

Pfaadt’s 4.03 xERA suggests he has gotten somewhat unlucky, but his .262 xBA allowed this year and .253 xBA allowed last year both rank well below the MLB average. I see his start as a good opportunity to target Chicago’s bats.

Pfaadt, a righty, has allowed same-handed batters like Christopher Morel to slash .289/.326/.526, allowing an average of six total bases to them per start. Morel owns a career slash line of .246/.308/.470 versus RHP but is a cool .218/.259/.382 against them this year.

Morel should bounce back against a softer RHP, especially since he has previously succeeded against Pfaadt. In five at-bats against Pfaadt, Morel sports an impressive .400/.400/1.000 slash line. Those are probably unsustainable numbers due to the small sample size, but it’s an encouraging sign nonetheless.

As you can see, Severino will cost you -150 to stay under 6.5 strikeouts at Fanatics and +122 to stay under 5.5 at FanDuel. Both of those lines are far off from the price at Pinnacle, a sharp book, which clocks in at 5.5 for -135.

Our model uses the odds from across the sports betting market to generate a breakeven price, called true odds. When the number available at a given book exceeds that number, we know the bet has positive expected value (+EV).

Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll just as they transformed mine! Not every bet will win, and it won’t happen overnight, but we have the results to prove it.

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The Atlanta Braves will visit the Houston Astros this afternoon. The ‘Stros will start struggling RHP J.P. France in this one, who sports both a 8.22 ERA and a 5.00 xERA, neither of which are encouraging. Opposing batters have a .289 xBA against him.

Meanwhile, Marcell Ozuna has been one of the hottest bats in baseball. He is slashing an absurd .364/.417/.727 this season to go with seven home runs.

Of those seven dingers, 6.8 are counted as expected home runs — 10 of his batted balls would’ve cleared the fences of at least one ballpark.

Ozuna clocks in at odds of +300 to go yard at FanDuel, which may seem short, but he is trading for a much stingier +209 at Pinnacle.

Even if he doesn’t go yard today, getting this bet at this price should yield meaningful returns over the long term — it’s just a question of getting exposure to enough of these bets to insulate yourself from variance.