Yesterday’s article scored a rare reverse sweep of the board, but at least FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday bailed us out with some nice bonus bets. Still, I’m unhappy about yesterday’s showing, so let’s bounce back today. I have action on a few MLB player props, including one home run pick and one bet from our MLB betting model. If you haven’t tried out our +EV betting tools, you can get them for 50% off — keep reading to find out how!
Looking for more sports betting picks and analysis? Check out our MLB betting tools, including our MLB weather report, or our other MLB articles! Also, our guides about +EV MLB betting, MLB player prop strategy and home run betting strategy may be of assistance.
MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today: Wednesday, April 24
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Mike Trout
Today’s game between the Los Angeles Angels and Baltimore Orioles begins at 4 p.m. ET, so make sure you get your action down on this one ASAP! We’re backing slugger Mike Trout to tally multiple bases again tonight. He mashed a leadoff home run last night to end a two-game hitless streak and now gets to tee off against RHP Dean Kremer.
Kremer has been bad this season. His 6.01 xERA (13th percentile) and .283 xBA allowed (18th percentile) are well below the league average. He has even coughed up an MLB-high 7.1 xHR, allowing eight batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences of Angel Stadium.
The MLB weather report calls for 90% humidity and 10 mph winds straight out through center field, so Trout should benefit from favorable batting conditions. Still, it’s not like the superstar needs much help — he is slashing .237/.324/.581 this season with an elite .606 xSLG (96th percentile).
I’m backing Trout to both record multiple bases (+120 at bet365) and go yard (+300 at BetMGM) We’re getting him at far too-friendly odds on both markets, especially with a pitcher like Kremer on the mound on such a nice day in Anaheim.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Mike Trout Over 1.5 Total Bases+120 at bet365 & Home Run +300 at BetMGM
For the best price currently available, check out our Mike Trout total bases live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Spencer Arrighetti
The Houston Astros’ terrible start to the year continued last night and shows no signs of stopping anytime soon. Their series against the Chicago Cubs continues tonight with RHP Spencer Arrighetti on the mound, whose 3.94 xERA (48th percentile) and 21.1% strikeout rate (41st percentile) aren’t bad — but his 11.57 actual ERA (and 2.29 WHIP) are both awful. Our MLB betting model wants action on an under for Arrighetti tonight. But instead of using his brutal statistics, it recommends the bet because we’re beating the market, giving this play some positive expected value (+EV):
The model shows that betting on Arrighetti to stay under 5.5 strikeouts will cost you only -140 at DraftKings. Meanwhile, almost every other public book lists the price at -150 or worse. Pinnacle, a sharp book, is even charging a whopping -196 for this one!
You may be wondering how the model works. To find out more, you can read our guide to using +EV betting tools, but I’ll give you the short version: It indexes the odds from across the market; adjusts those odds for book sharpness, hold and other factors; and identifies the true odds (a breakeven price) for each bet.
Bets like this one, when wagered over a sufficiently large sample, can transform your bankroll — just as they transformed mine! Not every bet will win, and it won’t happen overnight, but we have the results to prove it.
For the rest of our tools’ picks, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium — you can use promo code “POSITIVE” to get your first week or month for 50% off (the regular prices are $14.95 and $49.95)! If you have more questions about how it works, read our guide to using +EV tools.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Spencer Arrighetti Under 5.5 Total Strikeouts -140 at DraftKings
For the best price currently available, check out our Spencer Arrighetti total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Adolis Garcia
Are you ready to get hurt again? We backed Adolis Garcia on Dinger Tuesday, and he didn’t even get a hit. But here at OddsShopper, we trust the process, and the process says that he stands out as a sharp bet again today. Garcia will cost you only +350 at FanDuel to go yard, but he clocks in at +227 on Pinnacle and is +260 or shorter everywhere else.
Garcia has mashed six actual and 5.3 expected home runs this season, including eight batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences of Arlington’s Globe Life Field. He draws RHP Bryce Miller tonight, who sports an impressive 1.85 ERA, but his 3.37 xERA (65th percentile) isn’t as impressive. Miller has coughed up 2.9 xHR, including three batted balls that would’ve counted as home runs in Arlington.
I always flag this with home run picks from our model, and it always bears repeating: even if we don’t cash this ticket for Garcia tonight, bets like this one wagered over a large enough sample should turn a profit (check out our simulations), it’s just a question of building enough of a sample — and not wagering so much that you go broke after a few losers — to insulate yourself from variance.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Adolis Garcia Home Run +350 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Adolis Garcia home run live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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