Easy money! Yesterday’s MLB props article cashed tickets for J.D. Martinez and Luis Gil. We got the over on Martinez’s bases, and while we didn’t get a home run from him, the five home runs hit in yesterday’s Mets game means that we broke even with bonuses thanks to FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday. Tonight, I recommend getting some action on a few MLB player props, including two home run picks and a bet from our MLB betting model. You can try out our model for a week for 50% off, keep reading to find out how!
Looking for more sports betting picks and analysis? Check out our MLB betting tools, including our MLB weather report, or our other MLB articles! Also, our guides about +EV MLB betting, MLB player prop strategy and home run betting strategy may be of assistance.
MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today: Wednesday, May 8
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Jung Hoo Lee
The San Francisco Giants will continue their road series against the Colorado Rockies tonight, and it’s a great spot to target Giants bats in a hitter-friendly park. Leadoff man Jung Hoo Lee stands out as a sharp bet today — although his .264/.314/.329 slash line suggests that extra-base hits aren’t usually in the cards for him, this stadium creates an exception.
Lee’s .288 xBA (86th percentile) and .419 xSLG (59th percentile) both far outpace his actual stats, likely because of his home stadium. While he isn’t known as a home-run hitter, he has two actual and four expected home runs. Three of his batted balls would’ve cleared the fences at Coors Field.
The Rockies will start RHP Peter Lambert tonight, whose .247 xBA allowed is solid, but his slash line allowed to LHHs (.375/.436/.656) is absolutely not. Opposite-handed batsmen have mashed four extra base hits, two of which counted for home runs, in just 32 at-bats against him.
The trip to Coors Field has started out well for Lee, who racked up three base hits in five at-bats last night. While the hot start may not be sustainable, the hitter-friendly conditions in Colorado may be just what he needed to help catch his actual stats up to his expected metrics.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 Total Bases +115 at bet365 & Home Run +830 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Jung Hoo Lee total bases live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Hayden Wesneski
The Chicago Cubs will trot out RHP Hayden Wesneski against the San Diego Padres tonight, and so far, it’s been smooth sailing for the reliever-turned-starter — he sports an elite 0.54 ERA. But his 1.69 xERA, while still good, is a reminder that such a hot start probably isn’t sustainable. Further, his 22.2% strikeout rate (49th percentile) isn’t all that impressive.
Our MLB betting model recommends fading Wesneski on the strikeout markets tonight. His prop total of 3.5 strikeouts may seem low, as he racked up eight in his last start, but San Diego ranks fifth in strikeouts taken per game (7.4) and fourth over the last three games (6.3). That said, the model doesn’t even care about those numbers — it cares about the massively off-market number we can get at FanDuel, which has enough positive expected value (+EV) to warrant a wager:
Across the entire sports betting landscape, the under 3.5 is only available for -104 at FanDuel. Almost every other public book is in the -110 to -120 range. Pinnacle, a sharp book, is at -138; Caesars, a sharp public book, is at -131.
The model believes the under 3.5 is a +EV bet because of that market disparity. It uses the odds from across the market to estimate a breakeven price, called true odds, that is sitting at around -115. Then, using an adjusted Kelly bankroll management system, it calculates a bettor with a $1,000 bankroll should wager $14 on this bet.
Over a large sample, bets like this one will transform your bankroll. Not every bet will win, but we have the results and back-tested simulations to show our model is worth it.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Hayden Wesneski Under 3.5 Total Strikeouts -104 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Hayden Wesneski total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Tyler Stephenson
The market is the first thing I look at when following my home run betting strategy, and this Tyler Stephenson pick already jumps off the page due to the value we’re getting at FanDuel. They’re comfortable offering this bet at +500, but every other book is in the +410 to +310 range.
But even after we consider the market, this bet stands out as sharp for other factors. For one, Tyler Stephenson plays at Great American Ball Park, which leads the MLB in park factors for home runs. For another, the MLB weather report calls for near-80 degree weather and 60% humidity, which should help his batted balls carry over a longer distance.
Yet the factor that stands out the most to me is the opposing starter. Stephenson will take on RHP Jordan Montgomery, who, after a strong debut, has struggled to get back up to speed. Montgomery has already coughed up three actual and three expected home runs in three starts. His reliance on the sinker (41.7%) is great for Stephenson, who sports a .292 xBA and .443 xSLG against the pitch this season.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Tyler Stephenson +500 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Tyler Stephenson home runs live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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