Let’s cap the week with some MLB betting model picks after a slower run here. As always, positive expected value (+EV) betting is a long-term gain — we don’t celebrate short-term wins too hard or neg ourselves for short-term losses. For today’s MLB player props, we have a nice strikeout bet and a great home run pick. If you want more +EV MLB betting tools, join us at OddsShopper with promo code POSITIVE to get 50% off your first month!
MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Friday, July 26
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Carson Fulmer
The Fulmaissance is in full swing. Carson Fulmer was a longtime disappointing prospect in the White Sox system who only managed 15 starts in four seasons with them, posting a rip-roaring 6.56 ERA.
Then he became a nothing reliever for a couple other squads before falling out of MLB for a few seasons and then returning last year for three Angels outings. Alas, now the Angeles are getting a lot out of him as a reliever and spot starter.
He’s not blowing the doors off anyone, but through two starts, Fulmer has 9.1 innings, a 2.89 ERA and 10 total strikeouts — totally passable.
But OddsShopper’s MLB betting model prefers the back of the baseball card here. All three of Fulmer’s earned runs as a starter this year came against these Athletics, and he only struck out three in that start five days ago.
Plus, though Fulmer’s 9.1 strikeouts per nine are strong, on average he would need to finish the fifth inning to get over 4.5 strikeouts — something he has only done once since 2020.
It’s actually a bit surprising FanDuel has this at plus money given Fulmer’s career trajectory and relatively new role as a starter. The A’s are also hitting way above reputation right now, ranking FIRST (as in the very best) in MLB in OPS over the last 30 days.
The market is also moving much more quickly than FanDuel is — so get this bet in while it’s hot. Sharp book Pinnacle is at -109, and every other book in the industry is -110 or shorter. We have the true odds (how we calculate the breakeven point of bet profitability) at -101, meaning this bet has to be plus money to be a good bet long-term. FanDuel is the only source of that right now at +104 (2.4% +EV).
Keep in mind that sportsbook odds and true odds are always changing. To ensure you have the latest information, regularly check the live MLB odds page.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Carson Fulmer Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+104 at FanDuel)
UPDATE: A good case for keeping your notifications on — FanDuel has dropped the odds to -102, while the true odds have moved to +102. This Fulmer bet is now -EV, but we got it in while is was positive and the market agreement shows we made a good bet here!
MLB Player Prop & Home Run Bet Today: Jose Ramirez
Oh FanDuel, you are being so favorable with your odds today.
Jose Ramirez and the Guardians have a tricky road matchup with Cristopher Sanchez, who limits lefty power as well as anyone in baseball. So why go to Ramirez for our home run bet?
Well, as we try to make clear as much as possible, it’s not just about the chances of a bet winning — it’s about expected value. And this Ramirez home run bet has the most positive expected value (+EV) of any home run bet out there. We calculate the true odds for a Ramirez bomb at +532, and there are two sportsbooks who are beating those odds: FanDuel (+560) and BetMGM (+550).
With that 4.5% edge at FanDuel for the +560 odds, we are recommending a modest (but not negligible) bet size of $3, as the OS Rating of 1 makes this home run play absolutely bettable despite the 16% expected win rate.
Oh, and fun fact, Ramirez is actually hitting lefties better than righties this season, posting a massive .698 slugging, .328 ISO (both elite of the elite) and nine of his 24 home runs against left-handed pitching despite only having around 40% as many plate appearances as he has against righties.
Lefty masher versus lefty stopper? We’ll take the market value.
MLB Player Prop & Home Run Pick Today: Jose Ramirez to Hit a Home Run (+560 at FanDuel)
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
Want more sports betting insights and picks? Explore our MLB betting tools and additional MLB articles! Our guides on +EV MLB betting and home run betting strategy might also be of interest to you.
