What a great Sunday afternoon it was. We hit both our Kris Bryant player prop AND our +600 Adley Rutschman home run pick — so we’re going to run it back on another day of afternoon baseball and cash a couple more. We have two MLB player prop picks for tonight, one home run pick and one bet from OddsShopper’s MLB betting model. And if you are looking for profitable MLB betting tools, you get week or month for 50% off… keep reading to find out how!
Looking for more sports betting picks and analysis? Check out our MLB betting tools, including our MLB weather report, or our other MLB articles! Also, our guides about +EV MLB betting, MLB player prop strategy and home run betting strategy may be of assistance.
MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Monday, May 27
MLB Player Prop & Home Run Bet Today: Yordan Alvarez
We’ll start the way I do every morning: Dealing with the night sweat. Alvarez and the Astros are in Seattle taking on a righty in Bryce Miller who has been the best Mariners starter for stretches and the most volatile one for others, with very little in between. Right now he is in the latter stage — bully for a home run bet on a power lefty.
Miller has given up four-plus runs in three of the last four and six total home runs in that timeframe, three of which came last time out against the Yankees. His overall numbers against lefties aren’t terrible, per se; his .647 OPS against is passable, and he is holding opposite-handed hitters well below the Mendoza line.
The problem is that, when Miller does allow power, the ball travels. Eight of his 11 home runs surrendered have come against lefties, and the sample sizes between righty and lefty splits are comparable.
That brings us to one of the most fearsome lefty bats in baseball. Yes, Alvarez’s power numbers pale in comparison to those of his teammate Kyle Tucker, and +270 to hit a home run is pretty short for a guy slugging below .500.
But six of Alvarez’s nine home runs have come against right-handed pitching, and he is actually performing quite a bit bit better away from Houston. Alvarez’s slugging percentage is strong at .526 on the road, as is his ISO of .210.
Plus, though Alvarez’s modest power numbers are holding steady, he does have an eight-game hit streak going, during which his OPS is over 1.000. With Miller turning into a bit of a gas can, the situation is set up well for Alvarez to go deep, and OddsShopper’s MLB betting model puts this home run at 2.0% with a 28% chance of winning.
MLB Player Prop & Home Run Pick Today: Yordan Alvarez to Hit a Home Run (+270 at BetRivers)
For the best price currently available, check out our Yordan Alvarez live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Tyler Freeman
Yesterday’s Coors Field fade from the MLB betting model clicked, and we’re trying out another one this afternoon. This time we’re going with the Rockies’ opponent since Colorado is sending their best pitcher in Austin Gomber to the mound. Gomber is turning in an All-Star-level performance a couple months into 2024, with career bests virtually across the board despite pitching to contact to the tune of 6.3 strikeouts per nine.
Gomber’s .664 OPS against puts him in line with Cy Young contenders across both leagues, and though he is allowing some isolated power (.166 ISO), the batting average and slugging against are both low enough to mitigate concerns there.
What about Freeman? Well, he’s a perfectly capable righty platoon bat who hits both sides of the split roughly equally. Truth be told, this bet isn’t really about him — or even that much about Gomber, really. Instead, it’s about the edge we’re getting on the market according to the MLB betting model. Positive expected value (+EV) of 8.2% is a lock-in play and makes this Freeman under at bet365 the No. 1 player prop on the board.
Freeman has a 53% chance of getting one or zero bases today, and the True Odds are -112 on the under. Since bet365 has it at +105, this play is massively positive value.
Over a large sample, bets like this one will transform your bankroll. Not every bet will win, but we have the results and back-tested simulations to show our model is worth it.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Tyler Freeman Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105 at bet365)
For the best price currently available, check out our Tyler Freeman total bases live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2024 MLB predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this MLB season — make sure to check out the rest of our MLB articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
