Today’s MLB betting model picks are surprisingly fertile for a Sunday — especially in the home run market. Gross descriptor aside, we have some solid positive expected value (+EV) with a number of props, so let’s dive into the model and grab some of the best MLB player props, including a home run pick today!
MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Sunday, Aug. 11
MLB Player Prop & Home Run Bet Today: Matt Olson
As has frequently been the case with our weekend home run picks, FanDuel is giving us favorable odds on basically the two biggest sluggers on the slate. Now, Olson is lagging a bit behind his league-leading 54-homer pace from last year, and his .427 slugging is nothing to write home about, but his ISO this year is still approaching .200 and he has 20 home runs total.
More importantly, his +300 home run odds on FanDuel give us a 2.5% EV edge, whereas Aaron Judge — objectively the biggest home run threat on Planet Earth — is only at 1.4% +EV with his +210 FanDuel odds. Judge is looking at +206 true odds (true odds are how the OddsShopper EV betting model depicts the breakeven point for long-term bet profitability). He is still a positive bet, but Olson in the long run is the slightly more profitable play with +290 true odds against his +300 FanDuel odds.
And though Olson is facing a lefty in Kyle Freeland, he has two things going for him. One, he has reverse splits, meaning he hits lefties better than righties — .500 slugging, .246 ISO, closer to elite numbers. Two, he is in Coors Field, which doesn’t need much explanation. But we’ll do it anyway: Olson in a small two-game sample is averaging a home run a game at Coors and is slugging over 1.000. Bombs away.
MLB Player Prop & Home Run Pick Today: Matt Olson to Hit a Home Run (+300 at FanDuel)
For the best price currently available, check out our Matt Olson home run live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Chris Bassitt
OddsShopper’s MLB betting model has loved strikeout bets all year. Our bets with OS Ratings of just 1 or higher two hours before are returning 10.2% on investment — absolutely crushing — and when we up that to 5 or higher, now we’re looking at 15.1% ROI — beyond crushing.
Those 5 OS Ratings are 303-222 on the season across all sportsbooks, and on FanDuel they have returned 13.7% on investment. That is what we are looking at today with this Bassitt under at a 5 OS Rating and 4.2% positive expected value (+EV) on FanDuel.
FanDuel has Bassitt at -116 to stay under 6.5 strikeouts and the Athletics, while our true odds place this bet at -127 All other books either have odds of -140 or worse or have dropped the line to 5.5, reducing the value considerably.
The A’s have fallen off a cliff as an offense over the last couple of weeks; it wasn’t long ago that they were the top offense over a month-long span. Over the last 15 days, they rank third worst in OPS.
However, that is coming more from weak contact than strikeouts. Oakland has the third-fewest strikeouts over that span and over a 30-day timeframe — despite recent struggles at producing runs. As a result, OddsShopper projects Bassitt to have a 56% chance of recording six strikeouts or fewer.
Maybe this line is climbing after Bassitt’s nine-strikeout outburst last start, but before that he had gone five straight starts without getting to seven. In most cases, 8.6 strikeouts per nine and a 22% rate overall are not the numbers of a 6.5-strikeout line. While FanDuel treats him like he is that guy, though, we’ll jump on it.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Chris Bassitt Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-116 at FanDuel)
