Last week’s Sunday Funday was overall a solid one, as Gunnar Henderson cashing our +700 home run bet offset Willy Adames beating our 1.5 total bases under by flippin’ 6.5 bases. We’ll take that cash, but a perfect 2-for-2 day sounds more our speed. We have two MLB player prop picks: One for a home run and another directly from our MLB betting model. Plus, if you’re in search of profitable MLB betting tools, you can snag a week or month at 50% off with promo code POSITIVE!
Searching for more sports betting picks and analysis? Explore our MLB betting tools, including our MLB weather report and various other MLB articles! Additionally, our guides on +EV MLB betting, MLB player prop strategy and home run betting strategy could be helpful.
MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Sunday, July 21
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Luis Arraez
As we’ve explained frequently before, total bases props — overs and unders — are not always the most high-ROI bets. That said, when EV projections and OS Ratings start pushing into the range of 5 and above, that’s when the returns make these bets worthwhile.
In this case, we’re looking at an OS Rating of 5 for Luis Arraez under 1.5 total bases today. This year, our total bases bets have a 3.9% total ROI when they reach OS Ratings of 5 or more, and 61% of them have hit.
The true odds on this under are -121 — that represents the breakeven point where bets become profitable on a long-term scale, so any sportsbook that carries odds of -120 are better have positive expected value (+EV).
So Arraez under 1.5 is profitable at BetMGM, Hard Rock, DraftKings, ESPN BET, PointsBet and sharp book Pinnacle. That said, BetMGM and Hard Rock are the best values at -110.
Now, some may be wary of Arraez’s total bases under since he is hitting .312 and has 39 multi-hit games this year. But he also has painfully low power numbers: .382 slugging (league average is .397) and .068 ISO (.154 league average). In other words, Arraez basically needs to get a couple hits to reach two-plus total bases on any given slate.
Guardians starter Ben Lively is also a reverse-splits pitcher, giving up a miniscule .197 average to lefties versus .272 to righties in comparable sample sizes. It’s a tough matchup, and the OddsShopper value favors the under pretty solidly.
With a large sample size, bets like this can significantly impact your bankroll. While not every bet will be a winner, our results and back-tested simulations demonstrate that our model is valuable.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Luis Arraez Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110 at BetMGM)
MLB Player Prop & Home Run Bet Today: C.J. Abrams
As of late morning, there is only one +EV home run bet in the OddsShopper MLB betting model, and it’s going to C.J. Abrams. It isn’t the best matchup given Andrew Abbott limits power to lefties at an elite level, but the market value is too good to pass up on the best power threat the Nationals have.
Abrams’ slugging percentage and ISO are both approaching elite levels, and more impressively, they don’t take much of a dip at all in same-handed matchups like the one he has today. That’s good because Abbott is allowing only a .099 ISO to left-handed hitters this year.
More importantly, FanDuel has Abrams’ home run odds at +540, while the true odds are +518. No other book has this any longer than +500, so FanDuel is the only playable home run bet at the moment.
The OS Rating of 1 isn’t super substantial, hence a recommended bet size of only $2, but long-term this is still a profitable bet — albeit a modest one.
MLB Player Prop & Home Run Pick Today: C.J. Abrams to Hit a Home Run (+540 at FanDuel)
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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